Coming out of the University of Pittsburgh fresh off of a Heisman Trophy finalist season that saw him set a number of records, there were some concerns about quarterback Kenny Pickett, specifically his hand size and his overall arm strength, before he landed with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round at No. 20 overall.
The hand size concerns were a bit overblown, but his arm strength and struggles on deep balls were fair and accurate.
All Pickett seemingly did in 2022 was put those concerns to bed — for now.
Pickett was one of the most accurate and successful deep-ball passers in the NFL as a rookie in 2022 and finished 11th overall in the NFL in completion percentage of 20+ yards, finishing 11th in the NFL, according to Sharp, with a completion percentage of 39% on throws 20+ yards down the field.
Though it felt like the Steelers didn’t push the ball down the field often, a deeper dive though showed that Pickett was one of the best deep ball passers in the NFL, finishing second overall in deep ball accuracy in 2022, according to The Deep Ball Project from Johnny Kinsley, and was named the sixth-best deep ball passer in the NFL by Pro Football Focus earlier this summer.
His ranking in the completion percentage portion of deep balls in the NFL is further proof that Pickett was a bit underrated overall in that category following his rookie season.
His 39% completion percentage ranks him behind Seattle’s Geno Smith and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa at the top of the list, and is just behind Dallas’ Dak Prescott and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes at the tail end of the top 10. However, his completion percentage of 39% on deep throws seems him ranked ahead of star quarterbacks such as Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Los Angeles’ Justin Herbert, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford and even new Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
According to Pro Football Focus charting, Pickett had 54 drop backs on deep balls last season but ranked 21st in the NFL in deep passing yards (477) and tied for 17th in deep passing touchdowns (4). Pickett also ranked 30th in deep ball passer rating (65.1) and 19th in deep ball completion percentage (38.3%).
Those numbers are a bit eye-opening overall as they show some struggles for a guy that was ranked so highly this offseason in deep passing metrics, but the “deep” ball consists of 21 or more yards in the data, so it’s not that surprising that Pickett is that high up overall considering the damage he did in the 21- to 30-yard window last season in the passing game.
Looking back at the Deep Ball Project by Johnny Kinsley compiled in the offseason, Pickett was accurate on 19 out of 28 deep passes of 21 to 30 air yards, or 67.86 percent of his throws. That was second only to Seattle’s Smith, who ironically was the top quarterback in a number of deep ball passing metrics.
Pickett was only accurate on three out of 10 passes targeted 31-40 yards down the field, however, lending much credence to the perception of his struggles throwing the deep ball overall.
But, with an improved offensive line in front of him, especially on the left side with rookie left tackle Broderick Jones and left guard Isaac Seumalo, and added passing game weapons in Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III and Darnell Washington, the Steelers should open up the playbook a bit more and have Pickett push the ball down the field more often than he did as a rookie.
There’s really nothing that should be holding Pickett back. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but he throws with great touch and anticipation, and the numbers show he was rather successful when asked to throw down the field last season.
