With the Pittsburgh Steelers on a break before heading to Latrobe for training camp, we’re going to take a look at our expectations for this upcoming season and offer some over/under statistics to weigh in on. The offense wasn’t overly prolific last year, but the defense did put up some big numbers.
That can change in 2023 now that the offense is beginning to mature around second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, though, and if the Steelers can keep T.J. Watt healthy all year, that will only help everybody be more productive—perhaps especially the defensive backs. So each day we’ll project one stat line, whether for a player or a unit, and share our thoughts before asking you to weigh in on whether you think they will hit the over or the under.
It is your job to project whether or not the over or under will be hit. At the end of the series we will be tallying up the answers for each installment to create a collective pre-training camp snapshot of where you stand heading into the 2023 season.
Stat Line: 500 rushing yards for Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren rushed or 379 yards during his rookie season last year. He rushed for 173 yards in the final four games, never getting more than 12 carries in that stretch, though also never fewer than six. On paper, it’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to be able to hit 500 rushing yards.
It’s always easier said than done, however, and while Warren should be a more stable part of the offense, I also believe that we can count on Najee Harris carrying even more of the load this year. Remember, he probably was never even 100 percent in 2022.
The running game will be predicated on the hot hand, and Harris is going to get his hand in the pile first, so I don’t know that we can necessarily count on Warren significantly upping his number of touches from last season.
I also don’t think he’s going to average five yards per rush again, the cause of which was partly the circumstances in which he was rushing. He broke several 2nd and 3rd and longs just because he was fighting harder than defenses, but that’s on his scouting report now and defenses will play for that. Two of his longest runs last year were on 2nd and 13-plus. One of his three explosive runs came on 3rd and 8.
Another thing I believe we’re overlooking a good bit is—the passing game. The offense is going to be throwing the ball a lot more than I think a lot of fans want to believe. The Steelers turned to the run game in the second half of last season because that’s the only thing that was consistently working. They will be able to move the chains through the air in 2023, so they probably don’t hit another 500 rushing attempts.
So what do you think? Taking these factors and others into consideration, are you taking the over or under 500 rushing yards for Jaylen Warren? Answer below and at the end of the series we’ll tally all your answers together to see where you stand before we get to training camp.
