The Steelers are now in their offseason after failing to reach the playoffs in 2022, coming up just a game short of sneaking in as the seventh seed. They needed help in week 18 and only got some of it, so instead they sat home and watched the playoffs with the rest of us.
On tap is figuring out how to be on the field in January and February instead of being a spectator. They started out 2-6, digging a hole that proved too deep to dig out of even if they managed to go 7-2 in the second half of the year.
Starting from the end of the regular season and leading all the way up to the beginning of the 2023 season, there are plenty of questions that need answered, starting with who will be the offensive coordinator. Which free agents will be kept? Who might be let go due to their salary? How might they tackle free agency with this new front office? We’ll try to frame the conversation in relevant ways as long as you stick with us throughout this offseason, as we have for many years.
Question: What would the Steelers be willing to pay Najee Harris if he plays at Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley levels over the next two seasons?
While former first-round RB Najee Harris has had some impressive performances and has exhibited elite traits, I don’t think many would regard him as an elite running back right now. He certainly has not produced at an elite level, at least in terms of efficiency. He does have over 2200 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons, but he has as many negative plays as big plays.
A lot of that could be attributed to factors beyond his control, particularly sub-par blocking, questionable play-calling, and the health of his foot last year. At least in theory, neutralizing some or all of these factors could lead to him reaching his full potential and playing at an elite level.
Harris does not have the big-play potential of Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, or Saquon Barkey in terms of simple breakaway speed, but he can otherwise do everything else that they do, and arguably has a more well-rounded game than most of them. Maybe all of them if you factor in pass protection.
So let’s say the things that were holding him back have been addressed and he hits his stride starting in 2023. The next two years are great. He runs for 3000 yards in that span averaging 4.4 yards per carry with 18 rushing touchdowns, plus another 1000 receiving yards and half a dozen more scores as a receiving threat.
What is that worth to the Steelers in 2025? He’ll be entering his fifth-year option year at that point and theoretically due a contract extension. What will they be willing to pay him? I’m not going to pretend we can answer that question now because it also relies on things like how Jaylen Warren might look in that time, as well. They could draft or otherwise add another running back before then, too.
But generally speaking. Najee Harris looks like the back the Steelers thought they were drafting. How serious do they get about locking him up on a long-term deal? As an organization, they’re not likely to be beholden to league-wide trends and payscales. If they value Harris enough, I believe they’ll pay him regardless of what other teams might do. After all, they were the ones who drafted him in the first round to begin with.
