The hype train keeps rolling at a high rate of speed for second-year Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett.
Already projected for a significant second-year leap into a good starting quarterback by many football analysts, Pickett is now being called the top “breakout QB” for the 2023 season in, of all things, fantasy football.
Pro Football Focus’s Jonathon Macri highlighted Pickett Wednesday morning as the NFL’s top breakout QB in fantasy football, edging out the Washington Commanders’ Sam Howell for the distinction.
Pickett’s play down the stretch in his rookie season, as well as the added weapons on offense in Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III and Darnell Washington, not to mention a rebuilt offensive line, has fantasy analysts rather bullish on Pickett’s prospects for the 2023 season.
“The optimism surrounding a Pickett breakout comes from Week 12 and on, as his decision-making and accuracy greatly improved even though the passing and rushing touchdowns did not follow suit,” Macri writes regarding Pickett’s potential breakout. “While the lack of touchdowns and fantasy returns weren’t ideal, even in that time, banking on his stable metrics — PFF passing grade and limiting negative plays — fantasy managers can expect positive regression in those categories, which will allow for better fantasy finishes.”
From Weeks 12-18 as the starter, Pickett had the second-best big-time-throw rate in the NFL at 6.9% and had the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in that same span at just 1.1%.
Pickett was rather impressive in the second half of the year, cutting way down on the turnovers and general mistakes a young quarterback makes. He put together some strong performances in leading the Steelers to a 6-2 record when he was on the field.
Pittsburgh rebounded from a disastrous 2-6 start to finish 9-8, with a handful of wins in the second half of the season coming due to Pickett leading fourth quarter comebacks (Saints and Colts wins) and game-winning drives (Raiders, Ravens). He showed he has that “it” factor in big moments. When the lights get bright and the moment gets tight, he simply didn’t shrink, instead rising to the occasion.
That was big for a young quarterback to go through and grow from. That has him set up for success moving forward and has raised the bar on expectations as well.
Now, entering Year 2, it’s up to Pickett to take that leap.
From a fantasy football perspective, to take the leap and be that “breakout QB” that Macri believes he will be, Pickett will need to have an increase in passing production, continue to make plays with his legs and really start to find the end zone more as a second-year starter.
The passing production might not be there overall as the Steelers lean into the bully ball mentality that they’ve built the team around this offseason. Based on the moves the Steelers have made, it’s clear that Pittsburgh wants to run the football and control games, taking some pressure off Pickett to lead late-game comebacks and make plays in the two-minute drill consistently.
The key though for Pickett to be that breakout QB in fantasy is touchdowns, touchdowns and more touchdowns, whether it’s through the air or on the ground. Last season the Steelers had the worst passing touchdown rate (2%) in the NFL, along with the lowest passing yards after catch (4.1). Some progression to the means should happen there, which will help Pickett break out in fantasy.
Just don’t expect him to go hog wild and wind up as a top 10 quarterback in fantasy football this season — or anytime soon.
