Already a history-making NFL tight end in in his first two seasons, Pittsburgh Steelers third-year tight end Pat Freiermuth’s star ascension will reach a new level in 2023, at least according to projections from ESPN’s Mike Clay.
Freiermuth, who joined tight end Keith Jackson as the only two tight ends in NFL history to record 60+ receptions in their first two seasons, would become the first tight end in NFL history with three straight 60+ reception seasons to start his career if Clay’s projections ring true.
That would be quite the historic season for the former Penn State star and star-level Steelers tight end.
In his first two seasons, Freiermuth has hauled in 123 passes for 1,229 yards and nine touchdowns. That included a stellar rookie season in 2021 with Ben Roethlisberger under center, hauling in 60 passes for 497 yards and seven touchdowns. In Year 2, Freiermuth increased his receptions to 63 and yards to 732, but the touchdowns didn’t follow as the Steelers had some struggles in the red zone offensively.
That doesn’t take away from the consistency that Freiermuth has put on display in his first two seasons. He’s a trusty tight end, one who catches anything in his vicinity, serving as that true security blanket for his quarterback. While his blocking is passable, it’s certainly not a strength of his game. With rookie Darnell Washington now in the fold, that likely takes away some of Freiermuth’s responsibilities as an in-line blocker, which could free him up even more as a receiver.
Though the Steelers seem to be leaning heavily into the bully-ball mentality, beefing up the offensive line, adding a true, dominant in-line blocking tight end in Washington in the draft and aiming to build off the strong second half of the season the team had in the running game (No. 7 in the NFL in second half), the passing game might take a bit of a back seat, especially at the tight end position.
Let’s take a look at Clay’s projections for the Steelers’ tight ends in 2023 and determine if the players will go over or under their current projections.
Pat Freiermuth — 2023 Projection From ESPN: 60 receptions, 643 yards, four touchdowns
Having a full season with Kenny Pickett at quarterback should do wonders for Freiermuth in 2023. When the two worked together, there was a clear trust and comfort from Pickett targeting Freiermuth. In the games Pickett started and finished — that discounts the games against the New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens games — the then-rookie QB looked his trusty tight end’s way 62 times in 10 games, good for 6.2 targets per game.
According to Clay’s projections, Freiermuth will be targeted 88 times in 2023, or roughly 5.17 targets per game, assuming he’s able to play in all 17 games in 2023. Along with the 88 targets, Clay has Freiermuth projected for 60 receptions, 643 yards and four touchdowns in his third season. The 60 receptions would make for a historic season, as I pointed out above. No tight end in NFL history has ever had three straight seasons of 60+ receptions to start his career.
Freiermuth has a chance to do that. The yards per reception seem a bit low overall at just 10.72, down from the 11.62 he had last season, but certainly higher than the 8.28 yards per catch he had as a rookie. There might be some middle ground there for the young tight end, though the hope is the Steelers continue to ask him to run more vertical routes this season again.
Based on his production to date, this feels like a push overall for Freiermuth, which feels like sort of a cop-out. But these are solid projections from Clay overall.
Verdict: Push
Connor Heyward — 2023 Projection From ESPN: 15 receptions, 156 yards, one touchdown
Clay’s projections for Connor Heyward entering his second season are on par with the numbers he put up as a rookie, many of which came in the second half of the season when his role expanded offensively.
In Clay’s projections for Heyward entering Year 2, he has the Michigan State product down for 15 receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown. As a rookie in 2022, Heyward hauled in 12 passes for 151 yards and a score, that score coming on the road against Atlanta, creating an emotional moment for the Heyward family.
Entering his second season, Heyward should have a much larger role offensively in the passing game. He showed down the stretch that he could be trusted with a heavier workload and seemingly always came through when called upon. Seven of his 12 receptions as a rookie came after the Week 9 bye, as did his touchdown and four of his six first-down receptions.
Comfortable in his role and a relationship clearly established with Pickett, Heyward should easily clear his projection numbers in 2023. This is an easy choice for me.
Verdict: Over
Darnell Washington — 2023 Projection From ESPN: 11 receptions, 118 yards, one touchdown
The addition of Darnell Washington to the tight ends room makes it a very clear strength on the roster for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Washington is a clear mismatch in the passing game at 6’7″, 270 pounds, but his best work likely will come as a blocker for the Steelers as they lean into the bully ball style that worked so well down the stretch in 2022.
In Clay’s projections for the Georgia product, he has Washington hauling in 11 receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown on just 16 targets, a very light workload overall for the rookie. Though he is a mismatch and could really do wonders for the Steelers in the 12-personnel sets with Freiermuth, he’s entering a deep, talented tight end room and will need to earn his way onto the field as a blocker first before really having a role in the passing game.
That said, the touchdown projection feels rather low. He should be able to make an impact in the red zone right away due to his size and physicality.
Verdict: Over
Zach Gentry — 2023 Projection From ESPN: four receptions, 34 yards
Zach Gentry had a solid year in 2022, matching his career high in receptions with 19, though he took a step backward in the yards department, recording 132 yards receiving one year after recording 167 overall.
He flashed in Week 1 with a 32-yard reception against the Cincinnati Bengals, but after that wasn’t really used much in the passing game. Gentry did show some improvements as a blocker, allowing the Steelers to lean on the 12-personnel package in the second half of the seasons, but Pittsburgh clearly went for an upgrade in Washington, which puts Gentry’s role — and spot on the 53-man roster — in jeopardy. It would not shock me if he doesn’t make the team and based on the weapons now in the tight ends room, it’s hard to really believe Gentry will have much of a role in the passing game, either.
This is an under for me, largely because I lean towards him not making the team.
Verdict: Under
