Expectations and the excitement level are high around the Pittsburgh Steelers — especially offensively — ahead of the 2023 season.
With second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett poised to take a leap, the offense in the third year under Matt Canada’s direction and a trio of playmakers — two new ones — added to the fold, Pittsburgh’s offense looks like it could be rather productive and explosive, at least on paper.
That said, it’s also very clearly leaning towards being a ground-and-pound offense behind a rebuilt offensive line and power running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Therefore, it was interesting, but unsurprising, to see that the Steelers didn’t have a single wide receiver projected to crack 1,000 yards receiving once again from ESPN’s Mike Clay in his projections piece for all 32 teams Thursday.
Knowing that, I decided to take a look at the projected stats from the Steelers’ six receivers highlighted, that being Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III, Gunner Olszewski and Miles Boykin to determine if the players will go over or under their projections in 2023.
Let’s take a look.
Diontae Johnson — 2023 projection from ESPN: 79 receptions 965 yards, five TDs
Johnson, who infamously didn’t score a single touchdown last season despite hauling in more than 80 passes, is projected to have a bounce back season in 2023 by Clay. In his projections, Clay has Johnson hauling in 79 receptions on 127 targets for 965 yard and five touchdowns, adding another five rushes for 28 yards in the process.
In his first NFL four seasons, Johnson has averaged 138 targets per season, leading to an average output of 85 catches for 866 yards and 5 touchdowns. Based on Clay’s projections, he would finish under his average number of catches per season but would exceed his yards and match his touchdowns.
Based on the projections from Clay and knowing the style of football the Steelers appear set to play in 2023, it’s hard to not say under when it comes to Johnson’s projections, specifically yards and touchdowns. He’s become a strong possession receiver in the NFL and will certainly do that again in 2023 with Pickett under center. But expecting him to average more than 12 yards per receptions — a number he’s never hit in his career — is a stretch.
Verdict: Under
George Pickens — 2023 projection from ESPN: 62 receptions, 801 yards, four TDs
Pickens came on strong for the Steelers in 2022, consistently making the big plays in big spots, which were usually contested catches. As a rookie, Pickens finished with 52 receptions on 84 targets for 801 yards and four touchdowns. Knowing that, his projection from Clay for ESPN ahead of the 2023 season is rather similar, just with 10 extra receptions but the same amount of yards and touchdowns.
In Clay’s projection, Pickens will have 99 targets, an increase of 15 targets from his rookie season, which could lead to that increase of 10 receptions. However, it’s hard to see Pickens seeing an increase in receptions but having the same amount of yards and touchdowns in Year 2, especially after the Steelers saw what he could become down the stretch last season while establishing a strong rapport with Pickett.
As he continues to develop as a route runner and put in the offseason work with Pickett, he’s only going to get better and better. While I don’t think he’ll crack 1,000 yards, I think he’s going to have an impressive year overall, finishing north of 900 yards and more than five touchdowns. Easy choice here for me.
Verdict: Over
Allen Robinson II — 2023 projection from ESPN: 35 receptions, 364 yards, four TDs
Coming over from the Los Angeles Rams in a surprise trade ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft, Robinson theoretically shores up the depth chart in Pittsburgh behind Johnson and Pickens. Again, theoretically, because Robinson is coming off of a bad season with the Rams in 2022 in which he hauled in just 33 receptions for 339 yards and three touchdowns.
His numbers in 2021 with the Chicago Bears weren’t good either, finishing with 38 receptions for 410 yards and a touchdown, though he played in just 12 games that season.
In Clay’s projection, he has Robinson finishing with 35 receptions for 364 yards and four touchdowns on 55 targets as the clearcut No. 3 option at receiver for the Steelers.
It remains to be seen exactly how much Robinson, or any third receiver, will see the field in 2023 with the Steelers leaning into that 12 personnel package with tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Zach Gentry and rookie addition Darnell Washington. Therefore, opportunities could be limited in the passing game for an option like Robinson. Knowing that, I will say slightly under on his projections, somewhere around 30 receptions and one or two touchdowns. Roughly 10 yards a catch feels about right with Robinson, too.
Verdict: Under
Calvin Austin III — 2023 projection from ESPN: 14 receptions, 159 yards, one TD
Austin III is the biggest unknown at the wide receiver position for the Steelers. Pittsburgh spent a fourth-round pick on him last season hoping he would be the answer in the slot in Canada’s scheme, but the speedy receiver never even got out of the starting blocks, hurting his foot days before the preseason opener and missing the entire season.
While GM Omar Khan and Pickett have spoken highly of Austin, believing he’ll be a big part of the Steelers offense in 2023, it’s hard to really grasp that idea with the pieces in front of him. Clay has Austin down for just 14 receptions for 159 yards and one touchdown on 21 targets in the passing game. Shockingly, Clay didn’t have Austin down for a single carry in 2023, though he had Johnson and Pickens down for five each.
As of right now, it’s hard to envision Austin having much of a role in the passing game, but he’ll certainly get some touches as a runner on jet sweeps and maybe some gadget plays out of the backfield. He should be good for a deep shot or two in 2023 as well, but the receptions just might not be there.
Verdict: Under
Gunner Olszewski — 2023 projection from ESPN: six receptions, 76 yards
Olszewski was brought in to primarily be a return specialist, but when that backfired early in the season the Steelers pivoted to Steven Sims. To his credit, Olszewski worked his way into the mix offensively and finished with five receptions for 53 yards and eight carries for 39 yards for the Steelers in 2022.
Though I don’t see Olszewski making the team in 2023, Clay has him projected for six receptions for 76 yards on 10 targets. This is another easy choice for me, considering I don’t think he’s a Steeler in Week 1.
Verdict: Under
Miles Boykin — 2023 projection from ESPN: three receptions, 37 yards
Boykin thrived in a special teams role in 2022, becoming a core special teamer under Danny Smith. He really played well there and was unsurprisingly brought back on a one-year deal. What is surprising last season with Boykin was the way he was used early on in the season as a receiver before disappearing offensively.
Hopefully that doesn’t happen again in 2023 because he’s a big, fast, physical piece who has had some success in his career as a receiver. Clay doesn’t see him playing a role offensively though, projecting him to finish with three receptions for 37 yards on five targets. Not great.
Injuries are going to happen at the position for the Steelers, and Boykin slots in behind Robinson and Pickens quite well. Hopefully he gets some additional work offensively.
Verdict: Over
