The Pittsburgh Steelers unexpectedly found a running back to complement Najee Harris through undrafted free agency last season, with Jaylen Warren emerging as the team’s third-down back and another threat behind Harris. Warren only had 105 touches last season, but he made the most out of them, finishing first in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per target and rush, according to new data released by The Athletic via TruMedia.
Harris dealt with a Lisfranc injury in his foot, which limited his production during the first half of last season, and he struggled in EPA/Target+Rush, finishing No. 52 in the NFL at -0.11. That was largely due to the fact he also came in at No. 52 at EPA/rush at 0.13. He was better with EPA/Target, slotting in at No. 32 in the NFL.
Harris had the sixth-most touches among RBs in the NFL last season, but he regressed from 2021 when it came to this particular metric, as he ranked 35th in 2021 with an EPA/Target+Rush of -0.05.
Warren’s 105 touches came in as the 49th most among RBs, edging out the likes of Zack Moss and Eno Benjamin. But his 0.17 EPA per target and rush was 0.6 higher than New York Jets RB Breece Hall, who finished second despite a torn ACL ending his season early. Larry Holder, who compiled the data, is curious to see how Pittsburgh uses Warren in 2023.
“Harris is the Steelers’ No. 1 back, but given these rates, I’ll be curious to see how Pittsburgh deploys Warren, a 2022 undrafted rookie, this season,” Holder wrote. “Warren only scored one TD last season, but half of his receptions and 20 of his 77 carries went for first downs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.”
Warren was obviously more efficient on his touches than Harris last season, and the metrics show that he was more impactful. It’s not necessarily fair to say that Warren is a better back, because if he got the full load of touches that Harris does, his numbers could drop. But I do think it’s fair to say that Warren should be more involved this year, and I think he will be.
Heading into his second season, it’s fair to expect Warren to progress, and assuming he holds onto the third-down back role, he’s bound to see more work than he did last year, since he didn’t really become the primary third-down back until Week 5. With an offense that’s going to be more focused than ever on the run game, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see Warren get a few more carries than he did last year.
It’s going to be a fun backfield to watch, and I think that Harris is going to improve off his rather lackluster efficiency over the past two years while Warren will take another step up. As Harris said a few weeks ago, the running back room is the focal point of the offense this year. I expect both Harris and Warren to step up and have really solid seasons.
