With the Pittsburgh Steelers on a break before heading to Latrobe for training camp, we’re going to take a look at our expectations for this upcoming season and offer some over/under statistics to weigh in on. The offense wasn’t overly prolific last year, but the defense did put up some big numbers.
That can change in 2023 now that the offense is beginning to mature around second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, though, and if the Steelers can keep T.J. Watt healthy all year, that will only help everybody be more productive—perhaps especially the defensive backs. So each day we’ll project one stat line, whether for a player or a unit, and share our thoughts before asking you to weigh in on whether you think they will hit the over or the under.
It is your job to project whether or not the over or under will be hit. At the end of the series we will be tallying up the answers for each installment to create a collective pre-training camp snapshot of where you stand heading into the 2023 season.
Stat Line: 20 points per game allowed for the defense
As I said, we’re not just going to talk about individual statistics for individual players. We’re also going to be talking about team benchmarks and individual unit performances as well by the time all is said and done. Today, we’re going to weigh in on defensive scoring allowed.
First and foremost, this statistic isn’t just for the defense. Any points an opposing defense or special teams scores counts toward the same end-of-year figure, so the defense doesn’t 100 percent control this one, but they have about 95 percent of the control.
The Steelers allowed 20.4 points per game last season, and that was with only one non-offensive score allowed. At the end of a Browns game, cornerback Denzel Ward recovered a lateral during an end-of-game situation for a touchdown.
If you take out that six points (there was no point after because it was the end of the game), then the Steelers allowed exactly) 20 points per game last season, or 340 points on the season over 17 weeks. They should be able to better that this year.
It starts with getting T.J. Watt back fully healthy, ideally, while also having a healthier and more secure defensive line than they did a year ago—or two years ago. Larry Ogunjobi up and running plus the addition of Keeanu Benton will be a big aid.
On the other hand, there are a lot of new parts that have to mesh over the course of the year, including a whole host of new inside linebackers. Can Patrick Peterson hold up for a whole season? What does the play at strong safety look like? Will Cameron Heyward start playing to his age?
The last time the Steelers held their opponents to under 20 points per game was 2020, and they’ve more often than not been above that mark over the past decade than below it. On paper, they have an easier schedule, but they’re in one of the most offensively explosive divisions in football, so that’s six games to worry about right there.
So what do you think? Taking these factors and others into consideration, are you taking the over or under on 20 points allowed per game for the Steelers’ defense (and team as a whole)? Answer below and at the end of the series we’ll tally all your answers together to see where you stand before we get to training camp.
