With the Steelers’ 2023 offseason underway following a disappointing season that came up just short of reaching the playoffs, it’s time to begin reloading, through the free agency process, through the draft, and perhaps even through trade.
This is now a young team on the offensive side of the ball, though one getting older on defense, and both sides could stand to be supplemented robustly, including in the trenches—either one. Changes have been made to the coaching staff, even if not all of the desired ones, as the roster continues to renew with the weeks ticking by.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
Topic Statement: Pat Freiermuth will break Heath Miller’s franchise single-season tight end reception record in 2023.
Explanation: Heath Miller is the only tight end in team history to catch 70 or more passes in a single season, and he did it twice. Pat Freiermuth caught 60-plus passes in each of his first two seasons, but his highest is 63. He needs 77 to break Miller’s best mark of 76, or 14 more than he has done before.
Buy:
That’s not even one more reception per game. That should be relatively easily managed. Here’s why: his targets went up about 25 percent from year one to year two. The problem is his reception rate went down, and that was more on the quarterback position.
What does that tell you, abstractly? That he was getting open more but seeing lower-quality targets. In theory, he should continue to get open more successfully, but at the same time, he should see a higher level of quarterback play in 2023 with Kenny Pickett now in his second season.
So yes, it’s reasonable to expect that Freiermuth will have a bigger and more efficient role in the offense this year, which should translate to an 80-plus-catch season. While the frequency of targets he got from Pickett waivered, the young quarterback often turned to him in key moments.
Sell:
Look at this roster. Nobody is going to have the receiving numbers that they want because there are going to be too many options. Diontae Johnson wants to get back on track. George Pickens is eager to explode. Allen Robinson II wants to prove his tank isn’t dry. Calvin Austin III just wants to prove himself.
And that’s just the top of the wide receiver position. Nevermind the fact that they added a talented tight end in the draft in Darnell Washington who can also catch, and it sounds as though they’re going to want to target Connor Heyward as well. Here’s another thing to consider: running back targets were down in 2022. That probably goes back to normal levels this year. More targets to account for.
And this may well be a run-first offense in 2023 on top of that with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren running behind what should be easily the best offensive line they’ve had the chance to see since arriving in the NFL.
One other variable to consider: Freiermuth’s drop in reception rate from year one to year two wasn’t just about quality of quarterback play. He was seeing a higher percentage of low-percentage targets. His average depth of target as a rookie was 5.3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That was 8.3 in 2022. The way he was used changed, which made his reception rate less efficient, but his receptions more efficient, going from a laughable 8.3 yards per catch to 11.6.
