With the Steelers’ 2023 offseason underway following a disappointing season that came up just short of reaching the playoffs, it’s time to begin reloading, through the free agency process, through the draft, and perhaps even through trade.
This is now a young team on the offensive side of the ball, though one getting older on defense, and both sides could stand to be supplemented robustly, including in the trenches—either one. Changes have been made to the coaching staff, even if not all of the desired ones, as the roster continues to renew with the weeks ticking by.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
Topic Statement: Diontae Johnson will be the Steelers’ number-one receiver in 2023.
Explanation: Despite the groundswell of support behind second-year wide receiver George Pickens, Diontae Johnson remains one of the most skilled players in football at getting open, a trait that will continue to reward him with a high volume of targets. A better rapport with quarterback Kenny Pickett could yield a robust bounce back season that reestablishes himself as Pittsburgh’s top target.
Buy:
Here’s the crux of the issue when it comes to George Pickens: his success rate on jump balls will regress to a mean. The percentage of contested targets he managed to come down with last year is just not sustainable and is not something you can build an offense around.
Equally importantly, it remains to be seen what kind of progress he will make over the course of this offseason that will contribute to him getting open more frequently and thus garnering enough targets. Johnson’s ability to get open, on the other hand, is the known commodity.
And there is every reason to believe that he will have a much, much more productive season in 2023 after getting a full year to work with Kenny Pickett. If there is one knock against Johnson (and yes, I know there’s more, we’ll get to that), it’s that he seems to need a certain rapport with his quarterback to really excel. It took some growing into his partnership with Ben Roethlisberger, too. But once he’s in that rhythm with Pickett, the young quarterback will be looking his way all the time.
Sell:
One of Johnson’s issues this season may simply be the depth and diversity of receiving options that the Steelers will have available to them this year. At the wide receiver position alone, you have at least Pickens, Allen Robinson II, and Calvin Austin III all bringing something different to the table.
Then you have a growing possession tight end in Pat Freiermuth along with the rookie Darnell Washington, whose talents have yet to be fleshed out and properly exploited. And you have two receiving-capable backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, at least the former of whom was underutilized in that area last season.
In other words, there may not even be a “number one” this year just because of the multitude of options, but if there is, those targets may be distributed widely enough to allow a less-frequently-targeted player like Pickens to seize the mantle and establish himself as the most dynamic, go-to playmaker, possibly rendering Johnson into something more of a possession guy himself.
