According to the Merriam Webster Dictionary, a dark horse is a previously lesser-known person or thing that emerges to prominence in a situation, especially in a competition involving multiple rivals, or a contestant that on paper should be unlikely to succeed but yet still might.
During the NFL offseason, we often try to find dark horse candidates for nearly every category, whether it be that sneaky breakout team that no one is paying attention to or that player coming off a down year who could push for Comeback Player of the Year or even the MVP.
Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report recently highlighted the best dark horse candidate for the NFL’s biggest awards in 2023 and chose Pittsburgh Steelers HC Mike Tomlin as the top dark horse candidate to win NFL Coach of the Year.
“Are the Steelers a great team?” Davenport wrote on Bleacher Report. “No. Are they the best team in the AFC North? Also no. But the Steelers are stout defensively and have at least adequate skill-position talent on offense. If quarterback Kenny Pickett takes a positive step in his second season, the Steelers could be a 10- or even 11-win team. And if Pittsburgh can exceed expectations and make a little noise in the playoffs, maybe Tomlin will finally get the recognition he has deserved for some time.”
Tomlin is tied for last with +3000 odds to win NFL Coach of the Year this coming season according to the online sportsbooks such as Bet MGM. For reference, Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions has the best odds to take home the hardware this season, sitting at +900. Tomlin finds himself in a 13-way tie for last place with names like Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, and Sean McVay, who are also well-regarded coaches in the league.
While the Coach of the Year award often goes to that coach of a successful team that makes the playoffs, it’s also often rewarded to the coach whose team makes the biggest turnaround. Last season, Brian Daboll of the Giants won the award after getting New York back into the postseason after being a four-win football team the year prior. With Tomlin never having had a losing season as well as consistently keeping Pittsburgh in the thick of the playoff hunt, it could be hard for him to compete against say Sean Payton, who has the second-best odds to win the award if he successfully turns around the Broncos in 2023.
Still, Tomlin hasn’t been bashful in his intentions to get back to playing a physical brand of football this season. He and GM Omar Khan have been extremely active in free agency and in the draft to load up this roster to contend in the AFC North and in a vaunted AFC conference. Should Pittsburgh return to the playoffs as a double-digit win team and win a playoff game or two this season, it would be hard to exclude Tomlin from the running of the award, likely surpassing the expectations of the general consensus. We will see what happens for the Steelers in 2023, but Mike Tomlin is as good a choice as any to take home NFL Coach of the Year honors for the first time in his career.
