Fan expectations frequently don’t meet with reality in a number of different ways. Whether it’s the on-field product or the surrounding structure of running a franchise, we often fail to properly calibrate what is realistic. One of the most common examples is overvaluing a player’s worth in trade.
A general rule of thumb is that if you want your team to trade a player, other teams probably don’t really want to trade for him. Or at least they would be hesitant to pay much for him. The case in point this year is the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backup quarterback, Mitch Trubisky.
So he’s not the starter. And he’s due to earn $8 million for the 2023 season. Obviously, you want to move him and free up that cap space, right? But if you don’t want an $8 million backup, how many teams do you think want to give up a draft pick for one? Few, if any.
Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was recently asked about Trubisky and what value he might have in trade. His response in the chat was short and to the point. “Late rounder, if that”, was all he would offer on the subject.
Think about it. The Washington Commanders gave cornerback Williams Jackson III a three-year, $40.5 million contract in 2021. In 2022, they traded him away for a conditional sixth-round draft pick, the conditions of which never even came close to being met.
So what, realistically, could the Steelers get for an $8 million quarterback who has repeatedly lost starting jobs? With Jackson, the Commanders conceded that they mis-scouted him, believing that they could coach him up into a scheme in which he doesn’t naturally fit.
In order for a team to want to trade for Trubisky and his $8 million salary, as well as the playing time incentives that come with it, they would have to believe that he can at least compete for their starting job. Nobody is going to trade for an $8 million backup.
And how many teams are there out there right now that would give Trubisky a legitimate opportunity to compete for a starting job? Mind you, they would have to trade him and take on his salary. I don’t think even the New York Jets would do so if they bring back Mike White.
I struggle to conceive of many realistic possibilities. The Houston Texans, perhaps? The Las Vegas Raiders? Maybe now Brian Daboll will settle for Trubisky if he’s not convinced Daniel Jones is the quarterback he needs to win with the New York Giants, but that would be a bridge option.
Even assuming there is a trade market for him, we’re talking about a range similar to Jackson, at best. Probably no better than a sixth-round pick, likely conditional, and perhaps even for a swap of picks—they would have to give up a seventh to get the sixth.
When all is said and done, unless he causes a stink, it’s most likely going to work out that it makes more sense to carry Trubisky as a solid backup behind a starter on a rookie contract than it is to get a minimal return for him, while needing to replace him with another quarterback as a backup who now doesn’t know the system, just to dump his salary.
