Today I am starting my “Running Back Study Series”, similar to the “Quarterback Study Series” I just completed. With more time this offseason, I wanted to dive deeper into some questions I usually don’t have time for. One of these questions revolved around rushing success. Two data points came to mind that I wanted to learn from in this study:
- Expected Points Added (EPA)/Rush= expected points after rush play-expected points before
- Success/Rush= binary indicator (1=success, 0=unsuccessful) whether the rush was successful
Before the graph comes up, this is important! The chart below is viewing rushing only, so this is a simple starting view. Another goal of this study was to start with the primary skills every running back requires, adding the most value to team in the running game (example: not every running back is a receiving threat, but which running backs succeeded and added points in the run game). With that in mind, here’s what 2020 looked like:
I wanted to take the top 35 running backs by rushing attempts to get as much info as possible from the backs that had the most opportunities. Now, we have all heard the common narrative this offseason, the Steelers had the worst rank rushing attack in 2020. When most people hear that, it’s generalizes all of the running backs for the team together. This study focused on which individual players had the most usage/success league wide, to see if we can give some credit or criticism compared to previous beliefs. Looking at James Conner from last year, he played in 13 games and when he was playing, was slightly above average compared to the higher usage backs from 2020. This makes me think other than the games he missed, were Steelers fans a bit hard on him (lumping him into the worst rushing attack narrative?). I believe so, but most people would agree that since the Steelers made the investment and drafted Najee Harris in the first round this year, we have optimism for 2021 regardless.
Also, I was curious to see which teams had the most usage/success with “rushing by committee” (two or more rushers used regularly) or “bell cow” (one running back used primarily). I know there will be some names that we don’t see here, but it’s important to remember that these are the top 35 running backs in rushing attempts. The table below is an illustration of that. (quarterbacks that matched rushing attempts included in parenthesis):
| Team | Rushers | Success/Rush Rank (by players) |
|---|---|---|
| BAL | Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, (Lamar Jackson) | 1, 18 |
| TEN | Derrick Henry | 2 |
| SEA | Chris Carson | 3 |
| MIN | Dalvin Cook | 4 |
| PHI | Miles Sanders | 5 |
| SF | Jeff Wilson | 6 |
| NE | Damien Harris, (Cam Newton) | 7 |
| NO | Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray | 8, 11 |
| GB | Aaron Jones | 9 |
| IND | Jonathan Taylor | 10 |
| TB | Ronald Jones | 12 |
| PIT | James Conner | 13 |
| LAR | Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers | 14, 35 |
| NYG | Wayne Gallman | 15 |
| WAS | Antonio Gibson | 16 |
| MIA | Myles Gaskin | 17 |
| DAL | Ezekiel Elliott | 19 |
| DEN | Melvin Gordon | 20 |
| KC | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 21 |
| CLE | Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb | 22, 24 |
| LV | Josh Jacobs | 23 |
| CAR | Mike Davis | 25 |
| CHI | David Montgomery | 26 |
| ARI | Kenyan Drake, (Kyler Murray) | 27 |
| HOU | David Johnson | 28 |
| JAX | James Robinson | 29 |
| ATL | Todd Gurley | 30 |
| NYJ | Frank Gore | 31 |
| CIN | Giovanni Bernard | 32 |
| BUF | Devin Singletary | 33 |
| DET | Adrian Peterson | 34 |
| LAC | NONE | NA |
I really enjoyed the outcome of this table, especially the context of team approach to the running game, then the quality of play that the player gave with the most opportunity in the run game. So, the teams that got the best value from multiple high attempt rushers in a “committee approach” were the Ravens, Patriots, Saints, Rams, Browns, and Cardinals (James Conner’s new home, and in my opinion a better role for success and perhaps less injuries without a “bellcow” role).
Let’s take a look from this angle for a moment, who did the best with the most attempts (more for “bellcow” value):
| Rushing Attempts Rank | Rushing Yards Rank | Success/Rush Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 |
| 2. Dalvin Cook | 2 | 4 |
| 3. Josh Jacobs | 8 | 23 |
| 4. David Montgomery | 6 | 26 |
| 5. Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 19 |
| 6. James Robinson | 5 | 29 |
| 7. Kenyan Drake | 12 | 27 |
| 8. Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 10 |
| 9. Melvin Gordon | 9 | 20 |
| 10. Aaron Jones | 4 | 9 |
| 11. Kareem Hunt | 15 | 22 |
| 12. Todd Gurley | 26 | 30 |
| 13. Ronald Jones | 11 | 12 |
| 14. Nick Chubb | 7 | 24 |
| 15. Alvin Kamara | 13 | 8 |
| 16. Frank Gore | 28 | 31 |
| 17. Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 17 | 21 |
| 18. Antonio Gibson | 18 | 16 |
| 19. James Conner | 20 | 13 |
| 20. Mike Davis | 29 | 25 |
| 21. Miles Sanders | 14 | 5 |
| 22. Devin Singletary | 23 | 33 |
| 23. Adrian Peterson | 32 | 34 |
| 24. David Johnson | 21 | 28 |
| 25. Wayne Gallman | 24 | 15 |
| 26. Latavius Murray | 27 | 11 |
| 27. Cam Akers | 30 | 35 |
| 28. Gus Edwards | 19 | 1 |
| 29. Myles Gaskin | 34 | 17 |
| 30. Chris Carson | 25 | 3 |
| 31. Darrell Henderson | 31 | 14 |
| 32. Damien Harris | 22 | 7 |
| 33. J.K. Dobbins | 16 | 18 |
| 34. Jeff Wilson | 33 | 6 |
| 35. Giovanni Bernard | 35 | 32 |
Taking the above information, I think this is a fun way to look at, running back rushing rankings by 2020 rush yards for totality, success/rush for quality, and rush attempts(desc) for usage:
Top 5 in all Rushing Ranks
- Derrick Henry
- Dalvin Cook
Top 10 in all Rushing Ranks
- Jonathan Taylor
- Aaron Jones
Top 15 in all Rushing Ranks
- Ronald Jones
- Alvin Kamara
Top 20 in all Rushing Ranks
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Melvin Gordon
- Antonio Gibson
- James Conner
Top 25 in all Rushing Ranks
- Josh Jacobs
- Kareem Hunt
- Nick Chubb
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Miles Sanders
- Wayne Gallman
Top 30 in all Rushing Ranks
- David Montgomery
- James Robinson
- Kenyan Drake
- Todd Gurley
- Mike Davis
- David Johnson
- Latavius Murray
- Gus Edwards
- Chris Carson
Now for a fun ending question, how could Najee Harris stack up in 2021? The one possible low-level concern I have as far as team value is the long rush attempts (20+ yard runs), but I believe he will make up for it in the passing game and successful runs. Without any other glaring holes in his game, this will be so fun to watch the new look 2021 Steelers offense and see if Harris is the “bellcow” runner most of us think he can be (barring injury).
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments!
