I’ve finally gotten around to tabulating the TOX stats from the first two weeks of the 2015 NFL season and as expected, the plus-two number is alive and well.
In Week 1, teams that finished a game with a plus-two or better TOX stat went 8-2 (80%). If you know the history related to this stat, that’s the exact expected win percentage.
In Week 2, teams that finished a game with a plus-two or better TOX stat went 9-1 (90%). Year-to-date, the plus-two teams are 17-3 (85%).
Curiously enough, the Pittsburgh Steelers were one of the three teams that have lost with a plus-two TOX stat. That happened in their Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots.
In case you need a refresher, a TOX stat is derived by finding the differential in a single game of all turnovers and explosive plays of 20 yards or more. It should be noted, however, that plays that produce 20 or more yards as a result of a penalty are not factored in.
As usual, I will continue to track the TOX stat throughout the season.
If you would like to learn more about the importance of the TOX stat, you can watch this old video.
| WEEK 1 | ||||||
| TM | O20+ | D20+ | OTO | DTO | TOX | W/L |
| BUF | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| CIN | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| NYJ | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| CAR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| MIA | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| PIT | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| STL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | W |
| TEN | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| ATL | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| NYG | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | L |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| CHI | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| KAN | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| NOR | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| DET | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| SDG | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | W |
| SFO | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| ARI | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | W |
| DEN | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | W |
| GNB | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | W |
| HOU | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | L |
| DAL | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | W |
| PHI | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -2 | L |
| JAX | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -3 | L |
| NWE | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -3 | W |
| SEA | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | -3 | L |
| TAM | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -3 | L |
| WAS | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -3 | L |
| CLE | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -4 | L |
| IND | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -7 | L |
| OAK | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -7 | L |
| WEEK 2 | ||||||
| TM | O20+ | D20+ | OTO | DTO | TOX | W/L |
| MIN | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| PIT | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| WAS | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| CHI | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| CLE | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| GNB | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| NYJ | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| CAR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| NWE | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| TAM | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| BAL | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| CIN | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| DAL | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| DEN | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| JAX | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| ATL | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| NYG | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| MIA | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | L |
| OAK | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | -1 | W |
| PHI | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | L |
| SDG | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | L |
| BUF | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | -2 | L |
| HOU | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | L |
| NOR | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -2 | L |
| ARI | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -3 | W |
| IND | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -3 | L |
| KAN | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -3 | L |
| SEA | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -3 | L |
| TEN | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -3 | L |
| STL | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -4 | L |
| DET | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -5 | L |
| SFO | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -5 | L |
