I now have the TOX stats through Week 7 of the 2014 NFL season compiled and this week we had the plus two or better teams go a combined TOX stat went 9-2 (81.8%).
Year to date, teams with a plus two or better TOX stat are now 65-10 (86.7%). Keep in mind that the expected number should be 80% or better.
As for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7, they were a plus two in their Monday night win over the Houston Texans. For the season, the Steelers are still an underwhelming minus one. This absolutely needs to get better. Their defense has already given up 37 explosive plays (penalties included) through seven games. That’s an average of more than five a game. Sunday, the Steelers will play an Indianapolis Colts team that has already produced 37 explosive plays on offense (penalties not included). The Colts, however, have turned the football over 13 times this season.
I’d like to remind you that we are tracking penalty plays this season that result in a gain of 20 or more yards as well. If you need a refresher on the TOX stat, it’s a differential of combined explosive plays and turnovers in a single game. Teams with a plus two TOX stat in any given game are expected to win 80% of the time.
If this stat is not your cup of tea, feel free to just skip over it every week. If you find any mistakes, please let me know in the comments.
| WEEK 7 | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| DAL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| IND | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | W |
| NE | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| WAS | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| DEN | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| JAX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | W |
| MIA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| SEA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | L |
| ARI | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | W |
| GNB | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | W |
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| PIT | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| SD | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | L |
| BAL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | W |
| DET | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| ATL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| NO | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | L |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | B |
| KC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | W |
| HOU | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -1 | L |
| BUF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -2 | W |
| CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | L |
| OAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | L |
| STL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | W |
| CHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -3 | L |
| CLE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | L |
| SF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3 | L |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | L |
| NYG | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4 | L |
| NYJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | L |
| TEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | L |
| YTD | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||||
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | F 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| SD | 32 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 5-2 |
| NE | 21 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 5-2 |
| DAL | 22 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 11 | 6-1 |
| GNB | 20 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 5-2 |
| SF | 26 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4-3 |
| BAL | 24 | 10 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 5-2 |
| IND | 33 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 8 | 5-2 |
| DEN | 25 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5-1 |
| ARI | 21 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5-1 |
| SEA | 18 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3-3 |
| BUF | 26 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4-3 |
| HOU | 22 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 3-4 |
| DET | 22 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5-2 |
| ATL | 31 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -1 | 3 | 2-5 |
| MIA | 14 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3-3 |
| KC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3-3 |
| TEN | 17 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 |
| TB | 21 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | 1-5 |
| PHI | 21 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -5 | -2 | 5-1 |
| PIT | 25 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 4 | -3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 4-3 |
| MIN | 15 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3 | -3 | 2-5 |
| CIN | 19 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 3-2-1 |
| CLE | 22 | 5 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 4 | -7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 3-3 |
| CAR | 24 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 7 | -10 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 3-3-1 |
| WAS | 29 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -9 | -6 | 2-5 |
| CHI | 18 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 4 | -1 | -7 | 3-4 |
| NO | 18 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -8 | -10 | 2-4 |
| NYG | 17 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 0 | -11 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | -11 | 3-4 |
| STL | 17 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 3 | -8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | -11 | 2-4 |
| OAK | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 1 | -13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | -17 | 0-6 |
| NYJ | 15 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -9 | -17 | 1-6 |
| JAX | 20 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 5 | 0 | -16 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -8 | -24 | 1-6 |
