By Alex Kozora
This past weekend, Dave Bryan posted an article containing Ben Roethlisberger’s career numbers on opening drives. And as he wrote and a reader posted, a more full-fledged idea came out of it.
Statistics are all relative. On the surface, it’s difficult to gauge how impressive Roethlisberger’s performance (37 touchdowns in 142 drives) really is with nothing to compare it to. You need the rest of the league to see how he stacks up.
The additional nice aspect of a study like this is the sample size is the same. Each team and quarterback, health withstanding, obviously has 16 opening drives. Sure, there will still be a discrepancy in individual stats but a much more controlled variable exists.
This study is a great way to see how teams operate out of the gate while working off some of their 15 scripted plays, the set of plays that the team knows it will use to begin the game.
Out of sheer time considerations, I wasn’t able to go back and look at career numbers for each team and quarterback. What I did do was break the study up into two sections.
1. Looking at team numbers on their opening offensive drives from the last two seasons.
2. Looking at individual stats from each quarterback in 2013.
The first section of numbers come courtesy of Pro Football Reference. All the data is listed in the link at the end of this article. To make the table below a little more concise, I’ve listed the top and bottom five teams in each category, the league average, and where the Steelers’ ranked.
Data from 2012 will be shown first, followed by 2013.
| 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YARDS | TIME | PLAYS | START | SCORE |
| AVG: 31.85 | AVG: 3:04 | AVG: 6.1 | AVG: 25.3 | AVG: 5.7 |
| 1. TEN – 41.5 | 1. IND – 3:48 | 1. BAL – 6.9 | 1. SEA – 33 | 1. SEA – 10 |
| 2. SEA – 41.3 | 2. JAC – 3:44 | 2. IND – 6.8 | 2. ARZ – 32 | 2. MIN – 10 |
| 3. MIN – 40.4 | 3. ATL – 3:35 | 2. JAC – 6.8 | 3. DAL – 32 | 3. TB – 8 |
| 4. HOU – 40.2 | 4. TB – 3:33 | 2. ATL – 6.8 | 4. TB – 31 | 3. ATL – 8 |
| 5. IND – 39.9 | 5. WSH – 3:32 | 2. MIA – 6.8 |
5. ATL – 29 | 3. TEN – 8 |
| 28. SF – 25.3 | 28. NO – 2:22 | 28. BUF – 5.1 | T-26. DEN – 21 | T-27. BUF – 3 |
| 29. GB – 24.4 | 29. NE – 2:21 | 29. CHI – 5.0 | T-26. DET – 21 | T-27. CHI – 3 |
| 30. BUF – 22.7 | 30. GB – 2:21 | 30. SF – 4.9 | T-26. SF – 21 | T-27. PHI – 3 |
| 31. CHI – 20.3 | 31. OAK – 2:18 | 31. NYG – 4.8 | 31. NYJ – 20 | T-27. SF – 3 |
| 32. OAK – 17.1 | 32. NYG – 2:15 | 32. OAK – 4.5 | 32. HOU – 19 | 32, OAK – 1 |
| 21, PIT – 29.2 | 19. PIT – 3:05 | 23. PIT – 5.8 |
T-11. PIT – 27 | T-6. PIT – 7 |
| TO | PUNTS | TD | FG | INT |
| AVG: 1.9 | AVG: 8 | AVG: 3.5 | AVG: 2.2 | AVG: 1.1 |
| 1. CHI – 5 | 1. SF – 12 | 1. CIN – 7 | 1. SEA – 6 | 1. DAL – 3 |
| 1. PHI – 5 | 2. DET – 11 | 1. ATL – 7 | 2. TEN – 5 | 1. CLE – 3 |
| 3. DAL – 4 | 2. GB – 11 | 1. MIN – 7 | 3. HOU – 4 | 1. NYJ – 3 |
| 3. NO – 4 | 2. CAR – 11 | 4. CAR – 5 | 3. PIT – 4 | 1. CHI – 4 |
| 3. OAK – 4 | 5. OAK – 10 |
4. IND – 5 | 3. BAL – 4 | 1. PHI – 3 |
| T-26. IND – 0 | T-26. ATL – 6 | T-21. JAC – 2 | T-28. CIN – 0 | T-20. IND – 0 |
| T-26. MIA – 0 | T-26. MIN – 6 | T-21. NYJ – 2 | T-28. CAR – 0 | T-20. SD – 0 |
| T-26. CAR – 0 | T-26. HOU – 6 | T-21. ARZ – 2 | T-28. NO – 0 | T-20. PIT – 0 |
| T-26. WSH – 0 | T-31. TEN – 4 | T-21. DAL – 2 | T-28. GB – 0 | T-20. CAR – 0 |
| T-26. SF – 0 | T-32. SEA – 4 | 32. OAK – 0 |
T-28. BUF – 0 | T-20. GB – 0 |
| T-25. PIT – 1 | T-10. PIT – 8 | T-14. PIT – 3 | 3. PIT – 4 | T-20. PIT – 0 |
| 2013 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YARDS | TIME | PLAYS | START | SCORE |
| AVG: 30.1 | AVG: 2:54 | AVG: 5.86 | AVG: 25.84 | AVG: 5.34 |
| 1. DEN – 50.7 | 1. GB – 4:12 | 1. GB – 8.4 | 1. DAL – 38 | 1. DEN – 10 |
| 2. GB – 44.1 | 2. ATL – 4:06 | 2. ATL – 7.6 | 2. MIN – 35 | 2. DAL – 9 |
| 3. SD – 39.6 | 3. SD – 3:49 | 3. DEN – 7.5 | 3. OAK – 33 | 3. TEN – 8 |
| 4. ATL – 39.5 | 4. DET – 3:42 | 4. DET – 7.2 | 4. TEN – 32 | 4. SF – 8 |
| 5. DAL – 35.2 | 5. CAR – 3:42 | 5. SD – 6.8 |
5. CHI – 32 | 5. GB – 8 |
| 28.MIN – 21.8 | 28. BUF – 2:19 | 28. BAL – 4.9 |
28. STL – 22 | 28.ARZ – 4 |
| 29. STL – 21.6 | 29. TB – 2:17 | 29. CIN – 4.9 |
29. ATL – 21 | 29. PIT – 3 |
| 30. BAL – 20.2 | 30. CLE – 2:09 | 30. TB – 4.7 | 30. ARZ – 20 | 30. MIA – 3 |
| 31. NYG – 20.1 | 31. BAL – 2:07 | 31. STL – 4.6 | 31. MIA – 20 | 31. STL – 2 |
| 32. CLE – 20.1 | 32. PHI – 2:06 | 32. CLE – 4.4 | 32. DET – 19 | 32. DET – 2 |
| 22. PIT – 26.9 | 9. PIT – 3:07 | 17. PIT – 5.6 |
T-13. PIT – 26 | 29. PIT – 3 |
| TO | PUNTS | TD | FG | INT |
| AVG: 1.9 | AVG: 7.97 |
AVG: 3.16 | AVG: 2.19 |
AVG: 1.09 |
| 1. MIN – 4 | 1. STL – 11 | 1. DEN – 8 |
1. SF – 5 | 1. CIN – 2 |
| 2. HOU – 4 | 2. DET – 11 | 2. ATL – 5 |
2. GB – 5 | 2. SD – 2 |
| 3. PIT – 4 | 3. MIA – 10 | 3. OAK – 5 |
3. SEA – 5 | 3. PHI – 2 |
| 4. DEN – 3 | 4. CLE – 10 | 4. CIN – 5 |
4. DAL – 4 | 4. MIN – 2 |
| 5. SD – 3 | 5. BAL – 10 |
5. TEN – 5 | 5. BUF – 4 | 5. ARZ – 2 |
| 28. NYJ – 1 | 28. CIN – 6 | 28. MIA – 1 |
T-22. PIT – 1 | 28. SF – 0 |
| 29. TB – 1 | 29. TEN – 6 | 29. CLE – 1 |
T-22. STL – 1 | 29. BUF – 0 |
| 30. DET – 1 | 30. GB – 6 | 30. NYG – 1 |
30. ARZ. 0 | 30. TB – 0 |
| 31. SF – 0 | 31. DAL – 5 | 31. WSH – 1 |
31. JAC – 0 | 31. DET – 0 |
| 32. ATL – 0 | 32. DEN – 3 | 32. SEA – 1 |
32. DET – 0 | 32. WSH – 0 |
| 3. PIT – 4 | 8. PIT – 9 | T-21. PIT – 2 |
T-22. PIT – 1 | T-12. PIT 1 |
Taking the rest of the league out of the equation for a moment and comparing the 2012 Steelers to 2013, there was considerable regression. The 2012 Steelers scored seven times on their opening drive, well above the average of 5.7. In all, they came away with 33 points. In 2013? Just three scores – well below the average and one of the worst figures in the league – and 17 points. Especially troubling considering the team’s average start and plays run are nearly identical. You’d expect production to be similar.
Worse yet, the team turned the ball over four times in 2013, tying the league high (The combined record of the other two teams with four was 7-25). In 2012, the Steelers turned it over just once.
The only category the Steelers improved in was time of possession, a two second markup.
League-wide, the 2013 team was below average in yards, plays, and scores despite being average in starting field position. They finished near the top in categories no teams want to be first in: punts and turnovers. In 2013, the only categories they finished positively above average in were time of possession, average starting position, and interceptions.
2012 was similar with the exception of an above average mark in scoring drives, the only category to truly be excited about. But an important one.
To put a bow on the two seasons, one more comparison that’s a bit easier to digest.
2012: 16 drives, 8 punts, 7 scores (4 FG, 3 TD = 33 points), 1 turnover (1 INT)
2013: 16 drives, 9 punts, 3 scores (2 TD, 1 FG = 17 points), 4 turnovers (3 Fumbles, 1 INT)
In 2013 alone, the Denver Broncos scored more touchdowns on their first drive – eight – than the Steelers have in the last two seasons. The Cincinnati Bengals have scored 12 touchdowns over the last two years, 240% more than Pittsburgh. That stings.
It’s only one drive but helps show one reason why the Steelers always seemed to be playing from behind last year.
Since we originally were talking about quarterback play, blanket team stats can skew the numbers. After all, if a running back were to hypothetically rip off a long TD run on the first drive, the quarterback didn’t really orchestrate it and unfairly gets credit for it.
In an effort to make the picture a bit clearer, I broke down how 32 quarterbacks performed in 2013 on their opening drive. Table is below. Averages are located at the bottom of each category. Feel free to sort it how you like. By default, it’s sorted alphabetically.
| PLAYER | COMP | ATT | COMP % | YDS | YPC | TD | INT | SAKS | FUM/L | RUSH YDS | RUSH TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bradford | 7 | 15 | 46.7 | 57 | 8.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| T. Brady | 34 | 62 | 54.7 | 360 | 10.59 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| M. Cassel | 11 | 18 | 61.1 | 104 | 9.45 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1\0 | 0 | 0 |
| K. Clemens | 13 | 18 | 72.2 | 145 | 11.15 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| J. Cutler | 22 | 32 | 68.9% | 221 | 10.05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1\0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Dalton | 22 | 39 | 56.4 | 320 | 14.55 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
| R. Fitzpatrick | 20 | 29 | 69 | 253 | 12.65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2\0 | 11 | 0 |
| J. Flacco | 21 | 44 | 47.7 | 230 | 10.95 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| N. Foles | 24 | 34 | 70.6 | 288 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 1 |
| R. Griffin | 22 | 40 | 55 | 270 | 12.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1\0 | 69 | 0 |
| M. Glennon | 15 | 29 | 51.7 | 184 | 12.27 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1\1 | 0 | 0 |
| C. Henne | 24 | 35 | 68.6 | 325 | 13.54 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1\0 | 1 | 0 |
| C. Kaepernick | 23 | 43 | 53.5 | 260 | 11.3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0\0 | 65 | 0 |
| A. Luck | 27 | 46 | 58.7 | 315 | 11.67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1\1 | 8 | 0 |
| E. Manning | 22 | 44 | 50 | 271 | 12.31 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 0 |
| P. Manning | 55 | 81 | 67.9 | 662 | 12.04 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| E. Manuel | 5 | 16 | 31.3 | 84 | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 1 |
| J. McCown | 11 | 17 | 64.7 | 124 | 11.27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1\0 | 4 | 0 |
| C. Newton | 30 | 48 | 62.5 | 317 | 10.57 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 68 | 0 |
| C. Palmer | 36 | 52 | 69.2 | 408 | 11.33 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2\1 | 12 | 0 |
| T. Pryor | 11 | 14 | 78.6 | 126 | 11.45 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 113 | 2 |
| P. Rivers | 40 | 55 | 72.7 | 373 | 9.33 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| A. Rodgers | 33 | 43 | 76.7 | 300 | 9.09 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| B. Roethlisberger | 33 | 45 | 73.3 | 321 | 9.72 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2\2 | 0 | 0 |
| T. Romo | 26 | 40 | 65 | 297 | 11.42 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Ryan | 53 | 67 | 79.1 | 457 | 8.62 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Schaub | 11 | 20 | 55 | 69 | 6.27 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Smith | 23 | 47 | 48.9 | 283 | 12.3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 61 | 0 |
| G. Smith | 21 | 38 | 55.3 | 278 | 13.24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1\0 | 43 | 1 |
| M. Stafford | 38 | 62 | 61.3 | 406 | 10.68 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1\0 | 6 | 0 |
| R. Tannehill | 28 | 43 | 65.1 | 269 | 9.61 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1\0 | 35 | 0 |
| R. Wilson | 21 | 36 | 58.3 | 208 | 9.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1\0 | 31 | 0 |
| AVERAGE | 24.4 | 39.1 | 59.4 | 268.3 | 11.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 20.4 | 0.2 |
Roethlisberger’s numbers are the following:
33/45 (73.3%) 321 yards 9.72 YPC 2 TD 1 INT 3 sacks 2 Fumbles Lost 0 rushing yards/touchdowns.
His league-wide ranking in each category listed below. To clarify, each category is ranked from highest number to lowest. So for example, in interceptions, the highest number is first with the lowest being 32. How I set things up in the team chart and wanted to remain consistent.
Completions: T-6
Attempts: 9
Completion %: 3
Yards: 8
YPC: 25th
TDs: T-7
INT: T-7
Sacks: T-7
Fumbles/Fumbles Lost: T-1/1
Rushing Yards: T-25
Rushing Touchdowns: T-5
On the surface, the numbers appear positive. His completion percentage is only bested by Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Completions, attempts, and yards are all top ten.
The yards per completion does leave a lot to be desired, however. And as I alluded to above, the turnovers are back-breaking. Big Ben is responsible for three of the four giveaways. It’s not directly listed in the chart but that ties the league lead with Carson Palmer. This isn’t shown in the chart either but all three came within the first nine games of the season. In that same span, only twice did Ben throw for more than 20 yards on an opening drive.
It should come as no surprise then, though certainly a disappointment, the Steelers were outscored 64-19 in the first quarter through their first nine games. Only twice did the Steelers lead after the first stanza, and that’s including the opening kickoff safety in Week One against the Tennessee Titans.
As an aside, a quick look at the rest of the league.
Peyton Manning was expectantly dominant. Eight touchdowns, no turnovers, and was not sacked in 81 dropbacks. Wow.
From the numbers alone, you wouldn’t be able to tell Aaron Rodgers started just eight games. Top ten in completions and just missed the cut in attempts and yards. The Packers let him air it out early on and he knows how to move the sticks.
Ryan Fitzpatrick did surprisingly well to start the game, throwing for 50+ yards on the opening drive 40% of the time. But his performance seemed to go downhill from there. Houston better score early in 2014. Ditto with Matt Ryan. His opening drive numbers of a near 80% completion percentage and three touchdowns to zero interceptions mark far exceeded what he was able to do the rest of the game. Granted, some of that is natural regression to the mean.
Looking at the AFC North, Andy Dalton was boom-or-bust. Three touchdowns and the top YPC by a fair margin but wasn’t even close to completing 60% of his throws while starting and finishing the year with an interception. Joe Flacco was not impressive, failing to complete half his passes, throwing just one touchdown, and absorbing three sacks. In his final four weeks, he went 4/10 for 34 yards and a pick.
E.J. Manuel was dreadful. Matt Schaub was worse. He threw three touchdowns on his first drive. Two of those were to the other team. Only QB in the league to throw multiple pick six’s to start the game.
Back to the Steelers to wrap things up. As a whole, the team has been below average the last two years and frankly, bad last year. Roethlisberger was slightly above average but must cut down on the turnovers and a big boost in YPC would be a welcomed sight.
But the biggest onus rests on the shoulder’s of the running game to pick up the slack. Combined, the Steelers ran for right around 110 yards in 2013, a measly fourth of the team’s total offense. Just getting that number up to about 40% would probably be beneficial enough. No one is asking for a 50/50 split between run and pass.
Feel free to comment and add whatever other analysis you come up with. There’s a ton more to break down that I haven’t touched yet.
How a team starts a game is obviously not the end-all, but boy, it sure is nice when you’re successful early. Puts you in control as a team. Control is something the Pittsburgh Steelers sorely lacked in 2013.
Link to Team Data: http://goo.gl/tRhzBH
