As usual, I will once again be tracking the TOX stats throughout the 2013 NFL season. This is simple stat, but its 80% win track record is hard to ignore.
In case you need a refresher, the TOX stat is a measure of how many explosive plays (20-plus yards) teams create minus how many they give up. It also includes turnovers forced versus those given up in a game. Both are added together in each and every game and the differential is the final TOX number for that game.
This stat has stood the test of time as teams that come out of a game with a plus two or better TOX number generally win 80% of the time.
In week one of the 2013 season, teams that had a plus two or better TOX number combined to go 10-0 (100%) for the week.
The San Francisco 49ers led the way this week with a plus six TOX number.
The Pittsburgh Steelers finished week one with an even TOX number of zero. Head coach Mike Tomlin said Tuesday during his press conference that the team needed another explosion play or two in order to be in the game Sunday and history suggest that he is right.
On the flip-side, had running back Isaac Redman not turned the football over on the Tennessee Titans goal-line, the offense likely comes away with points there and the Steelers then presumably would have only needed just one more explosive play or forced turnover to win the game. Dealing with ifs and butts is ludicrous though. The fact is that they didn’t.
If this stat is not your cup of tea, feel free to just skip it every week.
If you find any mistakes, please let me know in the comments.
| WEEK 1 | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFF | TOX | W/L | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM | P 20+ | R 20+ | P 20+ | R 20+ | DIFF 20+ | INT | FUM | INT | FUM | TO DIFF | TOX | W/L |
| SF | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| PHI | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| NE | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4 | W |
| DEN | 9 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| HOU | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| KC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| SEA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| CHI | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| DAL | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| NO | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| DET | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| IND | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| NYJ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| MIA | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| TEN | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| ARI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| CLE | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | L |
| PIT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | L |
| MIN | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | -1 | L |
| OAK | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | L |
| TB | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | L |
| ATL | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | L |
| CIN | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -2 | L |
| NYG | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -5 | -2 | L |
| BAL | 6 | 0 | 9 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | L |
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -3 | L |
| JAC | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -3 | L |
| SD | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | L |
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | L |
| WAS | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | -5 | L |
| GB | 5 | 0 | 8 | 1 | -4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -6 | L |
