Despite making wholesale changes to their offense and adding Patrick Queen to their defense this offseason, there’s still some trepidation over how the Pittsburgh Steelers will perform in 2024. In an especially brutal division, the Steelers have the worst odds to win the AFC North, according to Pro Football Focus, which gave the Steelers just a 14% chance at winning the division.
Odds to win the AFC North this season 👀 pic.twitter.com/BtX0a6Y9X7
— PFF (@PFF) June 13, 2024
The Cleveland Browns had the next-worst odds at 15%, while the Cincinnati Bengals had a 31% chance. The Baltimore Ravens had the best chance at 40%.
The Steelers are a divisive team among analysts, with Brian Baldinger deeming them the “team to beat” in the AFC North. PFF disagrees, and while a last place AFC North finish would be a disappointment, it’s probably more likely than a first-place finish. The Ravens are coming off an AFC Championship Game appearance and added RB Derrick Henry, the Bengals are always dangerous with a healthy Joe Burrow, while the Browns tout a talented defense and an offense that added Jerry Jeudy this offseason. While the Steelers are certainly able to compete within the division, winning it is going to be a real challenge.
Ultimately, Pittsburgh’s success is likely going to come down to the level of quarterback play it gets. Whether Russell Wilson or Justin Fields wins the job, and right now it’s still tracking toward Wilson, they’re going to have to play well for the Steelers to be legitimate playoff contenders. While the Steelers boast one of the league’s best defenses and what should be a strong run game, the passing offense can be what takes them from a good team to a team that can compete at the top of the division.
If the quarterback play isn’t as good as expected or the defense winds up struggling, a last-place divisional finish is a real possibility. Just given the strength of the division, with every team last season finishing above .500, it won’t take much to go wrong for the Steelers to find themselves in the AFC North cellar.
With the Steelers not playing a divisional game until Week 11, they’re going to have to get off to a strong start and maintain it even through their brutal stretch to end the season. If they manage to go at least .500 against the rest of the AFC North, they should be in good shape to make the playoffs; anything worse is a little bit dicey. We’re still months away from that so it’s far too early to make predictions, but the Steelers know what they have to do, and they are talented enough to make the playoffs for a second straight season. We’ll see if they can make it happen.
