We have received some pretty bullish perspective on the outlook of the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers, like earlier this week when Mike Tannenbaum said no team is going to want to play them. His reasoning was sound, but that doesn’t mean it is the only way to look at things. Especially this time of year, when it is easy to get carried away with potential, hearing a balanced perspective can be helpful. Despite all the upgrades on the roster, the Steelers will inevitably have their struggles and frustrations.
Former NFL GM Randy Mueller wrote about six teams in the AFC’s “middle class” via The Athletic this morning, and he thinks things could go either way for the Steelers this season.
“The Steelers might have the best QB room in this group of middle-tier teams, with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. With new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and his play-action, RPO-heavy scheme, Fields’ skill set fits the best. Because of that, I think Fields will play a bigger part in the offense than most,” Mueller wrote. “Wilson, on the other hand, has to show consistent discipline to play within a very structured system without trying to ‘cook.’…four years removed from his peak level of performance.
“Any way you look at it, Wilson and Fields are playing for their careers as NFL starters, for different reasons. But I like the fit because whoever starts will be paired with a consistent, disciplined, power running game that goes north and south.”
There really are too many unknown variables on the offense to have a solid idea of what the group could become. On paper, it is all an upgrade over the Matt Canada-Kenny Pickett era, but Wilson is 35 years old and could be trending in the wrong direction based on recent years. Arthur Smith’s offensive system has promise, especially when considering his success as the coordinator with the Tennessee Titans, but he couldn’t overcome personnel issues as the head coach of Atlanta, and the Falcons were a middling offense at best.
The offensive line has heavy investments, but draft picks don’t always pan out. Even if they do, it could take time to be a coherent unit, and the Steelers don’t really have time with the “easier” portion of their schedule in the first half of the season. A consistent run game could be in the cards, but it took them half of the year to figure things out in 2023, and there are plenty of changes to work through to suggest a similar progression could happen in 2024.
As for the defense, a lot of that unit will remain the same, and the Steelers will need to lean on that continuity to keep them in games while the offense figures things out. They were the seventh-best scoring defense in the NFL last season, but not every metric painted the same story.
“Defensively, the Steelers still have the talent for a top-10 unit,” Mueller wrote. “That said, they have some concerning trends from 2023 to fix: They ranked 21st in total defense (341.1 yards per game) and third-down defense (39.1-percent conversion rate), 23rd in yards per play (5.4) and 19th in rush defense (115.1 yards per game). With the same coordinator and system in place for 2024, I have the same questions.
“The Steelers could really swing in either direction. It might take them time to sort out the quarterback situation and click with Smith’s new scheme, but I like their overall direction.”
I give the defense a little more of a pass for 2023 because of the number of injuries the Steelers had to deal with. It started in Week 1 with Cameron Heyward. He returned in the middle of the season but was never fully healthy and it showed. They then lost most of the central communicators on defense with seven different inside linebackers and six different safeties receiving starts.
Beyond the talent level taking a hit from the injuries, the defense had to find ways to stay in solid communication, and Mike Tomlin even admitted at one point that they were making December play calls with September players.
The 2024 projected starting lineup on defense looks very solid, but there are still concerns at defensive line and cornerback in the event that another key injury occurs.
I tend to lean more optimistic about the Steelers’ outlook right now, but they do face one of the hardest schedules in the league and there are still a lot of details to iron out. Overall, I agree with Mueller’s assessment that things really could go either way.
