Buy the dip! That’s a common trading term for getting in on a stock or an asset while it’s at a recent low with the belief of better times ahead. It might be hard to believe given the second-round pick and the five-year, $33 million new money APY extension that he commanded, but WR DK Metcalf actually comes with pretty good value.
The Steelers made him the highest-paid non-quarterback in franchise history, so it’s hard to wrap your head around it being a bargain deal. Let me explain.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase is set to get over $40 million per season, and that will soon become the new normal for the position. As the salary cap continues to rapidly rise year over year, it is quite possible that Metcalf will look like a total bargain as he is with the team through 2029. In fact, he could very likely be looking for contract restructures down the road to get more annual cash to keep up with the rising market if he performs well.
ESPN’s Seth Walder gave out grades for this trade and seems to agree with that overall idea, giving the Steelers a B grade for the move while giving the Seahawks a C+.
“The Steelers are a bit of an odd choice to get aggressive at receiver for the simple fact that they don’t have a quarterback. They’re not the worst spot — the defense always has the possibility of being elite, they have another solid receiver in George Pickens, the offensive line is decent enough and coach Mike Tomlin consistently squeezes the most out of the roster,” Walder wrote. “They just, again, don’t have a quarterback.”
One of Metcalf’s reported criteria for his next team was going somewhere with a stable quarterback situation. The Steelers don’t even have a quarterback under contract and have been linked to no fewer than five quarterbacks throughout this offseason. That is obviously the opposite of a stable situation. But what if they let Metcalf in on their plans during the legal tampering period today?
Aaron Rodgers is viewed as a legitimate option with the Steelers reportedly speaking with him today. There are also reports of the Steelers putting in an offer for Sam Darnold.
Those would be two different strategies, but both would solve the issue for at least the 2025 season. Justin Fields remains in play, too, but that seems to be a fading possibility as free agency approaches.
As for the value of Metcalf, the best season of his career came in 2020 with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. He has remained productive overall, but notably his touchdown production went from 29 in his first three seasons to 19 in his last three.
“I think it’s a reasonable time to buy the dip,” Walder wrote. “Metcalf’s open score via ESPN’s receiver scores dropped to 63 in 2024, the lowest since his rookie season and a small drop-off from previous years. Where he really fell off was in his catch and YAC scores (21 and 38, respectively — both career lows). But those tend to be more variant from year to year, and the fact that Metcalf was still getting open at a decent rate last season and is only 27 years old gives me confidence going forward. Considering Metcalf’s relative youth, a second-round pick feels reasonable.”
The Steelers were probably going to be spending a second-round pick on a wide receiver in the draft anyway. Yeah, they would have been younger and cheaper, but there’s no guarantee they would turn into a bona fide WR1 like Metcalf. Not to mention the Steelers managed to gain value by swapping one of their seventh-round picks for a sixth-round pick at the end of the draft.
Stefon Diggs was traded from the Minnesota Vikings to the Buffalo Bills in 2020 for a first-round pick and some other pick swaps. Odell Beckham Jr. was traded from the New York Giants to the Cleveland Browns for a package that included a first- and third-round pick in 2019. Tyreek Hill was traded from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Miami Dolphins for a massive package of picks that included a first-round and second-round pick in 2022.
Wide receiver is a premium position in the NFL, and Metcalf’s trade value and contract value reflect that. Yes, the deal feels kind of expensive right now, but the Steelers beat others to the punch with a $33 million APY in new money deal. That will quickly be surpassed and likely make the deal, which runs through 2029, look pretty good.
