As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 18 regular season finale against the Cincinnati Bengals.
My prediction for the game is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. T.J. Watt Takes Over
It’s been a relatively quiet few weeks for T.J. Watt. Ankle and thumb injuries have played a factor but the Pittsburgh Steelers need this win in the worst way. Time for guys like him to step up and go above and beyond. He’ll either be facing a banged-up rookie in Amarius Mims or a backup making his second-career start.
Yes, he’ll be chipped. Yes, the Bengals will look to scheme him away. But he dominates Burrow and the Bengals. Time to do it again.
2. Balls Bounce Steelers’ Way
Luck hasn’t been on the Steelers’ side and they’ve done little to create any, either. There have been a couple of fumbles on defense and the punt team that Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to land on. There’s more than luck to creating these opportunities and takeaways. Ball awareness, hustle, effort, and executing your assignment are important, too. But hopefully a bounce falls their way like it did twice in the first meeting.
3. Offense Has Same Approach Against Run Fronts
In Week 13, the Steelers were smart against the Bengals’ five-down, run-stopping fronts. They didn’t run into the brick wall. Instead, they called plays and checked at the line to throw against it with success. Pittsburgh must keep that game-plan going instead of running to nowhere like they did a few weeks later against the Philadelphia Eagles. Their strategy here will be key.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Pittsburgh Keeps Failing Against Motion
As we noted in our film room and as Minkah Fitzpatrick told reporters Thursday, adjusting to motion is one of the factors hurting the Steelers’ defense. They’ll continue to be tested until they prove simple shifts won’t bust their coverages.
Facing the Bengals’ offense when you’re assignment sound is tough enough as it is. If Pittsburgh keeps stepping on the rake, the three-game streak will extend to four. With rest, health, and plenty of practice reps, there’s no excuses for this game. They have to be on the same page.
2. Bengals Eligibles Are Simply Too Good
Even if Pittsburgh takes care of the communication problems, the next task is trying to deal with the Bengals’ talent. It’s as good of a group as a defense can see. Can CB Joey Porter Jr. battle WR Tee Higgins better this time around? Can they slow Ja’Marr Chase down like last time? Beyond those two, there’s the talented Mike Gesicki, efficient WR Andre Iosivas (34 receptions, six touchdowns) while RB Chase Brown has over 50 receptions on the year.
This is an offense that doesn’t shy away from leaning on the pass game and they’re clicking on all cylinders. And it’s just hard to beat that kind of team twice over a season, making things challenging for Pittsburgh.
3. Offense’s Slow Start Digs Hole
This team sure can’t have another slow start. Against the Bengals the first time, the Steelers started things off with a pick-six. But by the end of the first quarter, Cincinnati only led 14-7 with Pittsburgh right on the doorstep. They tied the game on the first play of the second quarter. From there, the race was on.
Similar has to apply here. Can’t fall behind big early and try to dig out. Match points for points. Just as they did to win the first matchup. The model hasn’t changed.
Prediction
Bengals: 24
Steelers: 20
Season Prediction Record
7-9
