With the Pittsburgh Steelers’ season in the books, I’m reviewing my preseason 2024 predictions to see what I got right and what I got wrong about how I thought the team – and season – would turn out. An annual exercise to brag a little and be humbled a little bit more.
I’ll use my 10 predictions post and stats outlook to check my work.
WHAT I GOT RIGHT
1. Would Be QB Controversy
Granted, this was tucked into part of a wrong prediction I’ll post below but I expected there to be some sort of quarterback controversy that would grab media headlines during the season, writing:
“Even though it’ll come with an inevitable midseason quarterback controversy.”
Which took place as Mike Tomlin made the unpopular decision to switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson mid-season. Fields was playing well and Pittsburgh led the AFC North at 4-2, leading many (myself included) wanting to avoid rocking the boat with a switch.
In the moment, Tomlin’s decision paid off and Wilson elevated the offense with far more effective play-action attack. But Wilson and the offense wilted at the end, leading to big questions if Wilson will return in 2025. The controversy and uncertainty continues into the offseason.
2. Pittsburgh Will Finish Top Five In Rushing Attempts
My prediction from the “10 things I think I think” post. An easy dot to connect given OC Arthur Smith’s track record. And Pittsburgh indeed finish top-five, fourth league-wide with 533 attempts on the season. Efficiency and volume are different stories and bars they failed to meet but that wasn’t my prediction. I simply knew they were going to run – a lot – and they certainly did.
3. This Offense Will Miss A No. 2 wideout
In hindsight, trading away WR Diontae Johnson for CB Donte Jackson wasn’t a bad move. Johnson bombed his career while Jackson, with his warts, led the team with five interceptions. But Pittsburgh never replaced Johnson’s skillset. They missed out on trading for a big-name receiver and only added Mike Williams who caught nine passes in nine games. Now, the team enters 2025 with receiver near the top of their “needs” list and they figure to add in free agency, draft, or do both to replenish.
4. Slot Corner Will Feel Like A Top 2025 Need
Maybe a bit of grace on this one since Pittsburgh has other needs. But slot corner was a messy position for the Steelers this year. Perhaps they found something in rookie Beanie Bishop Jr. who picked off four passes this year, second-most ever by a Steelers’ rookie UDFA only behind Hall of Famer Jack Butler.
But the Steelers did nothing to create competition at slot this year and pressed Bishop into action. As a pure cover corner, he wasn’t great and he had communication breakdowns. Pittsburgh turned to veteran Cam Sutton after the bye and things only got worse. Sutton was a wreck who couldn’t run or communicate. The Steelers might not be back to the literal drawing board but there’s work to add more quality competition and improve this position while hoping for Bishop to take a leap.
5. Touchdown Passes (Kind Of)
I was in the ballpark on this one. I predicted the team would hit 25 combined touchdown throws, a measure of competency for a standard NFL offense. Ultimately, they fell a little short of that goal and finished 2024 with 21. Still, it’s a big improvement from where they’ve been. Hopefully they can reach 25 next season.
6. Justin Fields’ Rushing Numbers
My prediction for Fields this year was 255 yards and four touchdowns. And that came with the expectation of him not starting the first six games. So his official numbers came in slightly ahead, 289 yards and five scores. Still, it was a solid swing given how murky Fields’ role felt before Russell Wilson injured his calf for a second time.
7. Pat Freiermuth/Darnell Washington Production
Some good guesses with the tight ends. I predicted Freiermuth would catch 64 passes for 667 yards and five touchdowns. For Washington, I predicted 14 receptions, 102 yards, and two scores.
In reality, Freiermuth caught 65 for 673 and seven scores. Washington had 19 for 200 and his first NFL touchdown. Freiermuth was close to dead on while I was in the ballpark of Washington seeing an increase in production but still relatively minor numbers, focusing more on pass protection and fading out of the pass-game by year’s end.
8. Team Record/Season Outcome
Though my game-by-game predictions this year were miserable, I went 9-9 including playoffs, I’ve been pretty solid in preseason overall predictions. Right before the season kicked off, I predicted Pittsburgh would go 10-7, finish third in the AFC North and make the Wild Card, and again be one-and-done in the postseason.
While Pittsburgh finished second and ahead of Cincinnati in the division, everything else was exactly correct. I didn’t expect them to finish with 10 wins the manner they did, losing their final four of the regular season, but right is right.
WHAT I GOT WRONG
1. Russell Wilson Will Remain The Steelers’ Starter Throughout Most, If Not All, Of 2024
I wrote this in my “10 Things I Think” post right around the time the Steelers announced Wilson re-aggravated his calf injury and his Week 1 outlook was still uncertain. But wrong is wrong and Wilson didn’t start the first six games of the year. Justin Fields led the show until Wilson was 110-percent healthy and only then did he finish out the season.
2. The “easy” part of the schedule won’t feel so easy
I was nervous about the first month of the season even if most focused on the difficult end-stretch of Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati. Road games against the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos with home games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys made me worried.
While none of those games were cakewalks, the team handled business well-enough during the stretch. They began the year 3-0 and 4-2, stumbling to the Indianapolis Colts and Cowboys but their season still got off to a fine start. It was the ending that crushed them, the area others were rightly worried about when the league released the schedule in May.
3. Minkah Fitzpatrick Will Roar Back
One of my biggest misses of the year, I thought Fitzpatrick was primed for a huge 2024. Healthy, I predicted he would look like the free safety star he was prior to 2023 and would lead the Steelers with six interceptions. Instead, Fitzpatrick picked off just a lone pass and while healthy and a strong tackler, he wasn’t the impactful free safety he was before. Even in coverage, he wasn’t as effective and had one of his worse years defending the pass.
Pittsburgh returned him to his previous role after packing him into the box in 2023 but Fitzpatrick’s play didn’t follow suit.
4. An Offensive Tackle Will Catch A Touchdown Pass
Went bold here based on Smith’s history of having offensive tackles catch touchdowns in Tennessee. That never came close to happening in Pittsburgh. Maybe if the group was healthier, if Troy Fautanu didn’t get hurt, but the Steelers hardly even used a sixth offensive lineman and never threw a pass their way. Swing and a miss from me.
5. The ILBs Won’t Be Perfect…But They’ll Be Good
This one could be debated into which column it should be. There was good from the Steelers’ inside linebackers. Patrick Queen didn’t meet big expectations but had his moments, Elandon Roberts is a fun old-school player, and Payton Wilson showed promise in his rookie year.
Still, the group wasn’t as strong as I talked it up preseason so I will put it in the “wrong” column.
6. Pittsburgh will return one kick for a TD…but everything else will be muted
A little similar to the above, I wrote that I expected Cordarrelle Patterson to make one splash in the kick return game and not much else. Here’s all of what I wrote.
“Cordarrelle Patterson was brought in to impact the kick-return game. And he will. Once.
Still, my expectations are tempered. Either because of his game declining into his 30s or because he houses one and teams stop kicking to him or for whatever reason, the kick-return game won’t feel dramatically different despite its new hairdo. But all it takes is one crease to house one, something Patterson still has the juice to do. It’ll be the team’s first kick-return score since 2017.”
Despite friendlier NFL rules, the Steelers’ kick return unit took a step back and was the worst in football. Patterson did make one big play on offense, a crazy touchdown catch against the Baltimore Ravens, but as a returner, he was a failure.
7. Keeanu Benton And Nick Herbig Will Be Budding Wisconsin Studs
Herbig and Benton continued to have their moments and both have been good picks. But Herbig’s season cooled off after a hot start, a mid-season injury didn’t help, while Benton didn’t record a sack until the regular season finale. Both took steps but I don’t think they exited the season feeling like “budding studs.” Not quite there.
8. Cameron Johnston Will Set A Steelers Gross Record
Bold prediction for the Steelers punter to surpass 47.0 yards of gross average, which would break Bobby Joe Green’s record set way back in 1961. We’ll never know if Johnston would’ve done it. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in the season opener against Atlanta.
Replacement Corliss Waitman averaged 46.4-yards, falling short of Green’s mark. We’ll see where Johnston health leaves him and the Steelers’ punting situation next summer. Waitman is under contract and should be carried to compete.
9. Numbers I got Wrong
Run-through of stats I was the most off with. I thought Najee Harris would see a notable bump in his yards per carry and finish the year at 4.4. Instead, he maintained about what he’s always done and came in at 4.0 with a quiet end to the year. It was more of the same.
I grossly overestimated Connor Heyward’s involvement in this offense. He saw some snaps but I predicted a 27/245/3 line. Instead, he caught six passes for 40 yards and one score. A missed downfield catch against the Dallas Cowboys didn’t help but I didn’t consider a healthy Pat Freiermuth enough that would tamp down Heyward’s numbers.
Defensively, I predicted T.J. Watt to finish with 19 sacks. Instead, he had his fewest in a non-injury shortened season since his rookie year, ending with 11.5 and zero over his last three regular season games.
