With the 2024 regular season in the books, I wanted to provide a deep dive on explosive plays (20 yards or more). A few years ago, I created what I call Adjusted Explosive Plays (AEP): the total count of explosive plays, double-explosives (40 yards or more) adding a multiplier of two, and triple-explosive plays (60 yards or more) multiplying by three. For every play that ended in the end zone, I multiplied by six.
The longer the explosive, the better, and the greatest emphasis on the ultimate goal of scoring points.
Here are raw explosive play totals on offense and defense for an initial view:
The Pittsburgh Steelers land above the mean in on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed 57 explosive plays (T-ninth), and offense had 66 explosive plays, which ranked tenth in the 2024 regular season. Being top-10 in each is an awesome fact and will hopefully reoccur in the postseason.
Their first Wild Card challenger stands out as with the NFLs most explosive plays in the 2024 with 84, the Baltimore Ravens. That was five more than any other offense this year, and is a scary proposition for the matchup this weekend.
The majority of explosives come through the air in general. Baltimore had 56 explosive passes (T-sixth), as QB Lamar Jackson has improved greatly as a passer. Along with that, the Ravens were an NFL-best with 28 explosive rushes, led by Jackson and RB Derrick Henry.
The latter was a big difference in how the prior two regular season matchups went down. In the Steelers 18-16 Week 11 win, they forced a very early fumble, and faced just 13 rush attempts from Henry. In the more recent Week 16 loss, Henry went for 162 rushing yards on 24 attempts, including a double-explosive 44 yarder, along with another 25 yarder from RB Justice Hill.
In totality, Baltimore had three explosive plays that game, but two were double-explosives. One was the Henry run just discussed, and a big 49-yard pass to WR Zay Flowers, who will not play Saturday due to injury.
While Week 11 was a Steelers win, they allowed more explosives from Baltimore’s offense at five. Once again, two were rushes, from Henry (31) and Jackson (25). The Ravens also had a double-explosive 42 yarder to TE Isaiah Likely. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled guarding the position amidst their losing streak, including two total TDs to Ravens TEs.
Big passing plays allowed, and the waning run defense against potent attacks in this four-game losing streak is highly concerning. Having to account for Jackson’s rushing ability as the best running QB in the NFL makes it an even tougher task than normal as well.
Two of the key components that are high on my radar for hopeful Steelers victory is the turnover battle, another catalyst to winning the first game, and of course the topic today – explosive plays.
Here are the per game numbers for Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball:
Week 1 Vs. ATL (W 18-10): OFF – 3, DEF – 1
Week 2 Vs. DEN (W 13-6): OFF – 0, DEF – 4
Week 3 Vs. LAC (W 20-10): OFF – 8, DEF – 1
Week 4 Vs. IND (L 27-24): OFF – 5, DEF – 5
Week 5 Vs. DAL (L 20-17): OFF – 2, DEF – 6
Week 6 Vs. LV (W 32-13): OFF – 5, DEF – 1
Week 7 Vs. NYJ (W 37-15): OFF – 6, DEF – 3
Week 8 Vs. NYG (W 26-18): OFF – 5, DEF – 6
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 Vs. WAS (W 28-27): OFF – 4, DEF – 3
Week 11 Vs. BAL (W 18-16): OFF – 3, DEF – 5
Week 12 Vs. CLE (L 24-19): OFF – 6, DEF – 3
Week 13 Vs. CIN (W 44-38): OFF – 10, DEF – 5
Week 14 Vs. CLE (W 27-14): OFF – 5, DEF – 2
Week 15 Vs. PHI (L 27-13): OFF – 2, DEF – 8
Week 16 Vs. BAL (L 34-17): OFF – 2, DEF – 4
Week 17 Vs. KC (L 29-10): OFF – 4, DEF – 3
Week 18 Vs. CIN (L 19-17): OFF – 1, DEF – 0
We clearly see a downtrend. Particularly for Pittsburgh’s offense, who have four or less among their most recent four losses. That only happened 5 other games this season (out of 13), so clearly falling off a cliff. Some of this is self-inflicted, but defenses have also figured out how to limit Pittsburgh’s offense compared to earlier in the season.
Included in that is Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson’s issues against zone coverage. Our Alex Kozora and I delved into the topic, and he concluded that it is the No. 1 flaw with Russell Wilson. Defenses are inviting short passes, along with limiting his moon-ball, his greatest strength. He also doesn’t attack the intermediate parts of the field enough, so the results on the field aren’t surprising overall.
One thing’s for sure, adjustments must be made, because defense sure have. Look no further than their most recent game, against an improved but not elite defense in Cincinnati, who limited them to just one explosive play, yikes.
This was painful in that 19-17 loss, especially when adding the fact Pittsburgh’s defense held QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense to no explosive plays. That is extremely impressive, and the unit has made positive strides in each of the last three weeks since allowing a whopping eight explosives to Philadelphia’s offense.
The Steelers defense allowed five or more explosive plays six games in 2024, and just three since the bye week. Very encouraging, set to face the potent Baltimore offense though, who had five and four in their matchups this season.
Now let’s look at adjusted explosive plays (AEP), and see how that added value looks around the league:
Very mixed feelings here. Pittsburgh’s offense falls off a cliff with a 130 OAEP (offense) that ranks 20th, compared to their tenth rank in the first view. The good news was the Steelers defense, who added great value in their 105 AEP that moves up to fourth-best, compared to tying for ninth in the raw explosive play stat.
For more context, the strongest OAEP was 232 from Philadelphia, the best balanced team in each, and the Jets on defense (96). Baltimore still is one of the better offenses, but the Eagles and Lions passed their top rank in explosives with a 222 OAEP. Those were clearly the top three offenses in 2024, and among the strongest teams in the postseason, miles above Pittsburgh’s offense.
Once again, the more encouraging Steelers defense will hopefully be up to the task of stopping another highly potent offense, as they have done in past rivalry slug-fests. But the Ravens’ offense is a different animal this year, as we see on film and in the data as well. Here’s to hoping Pittsburgh wins the explosive play battle, which could bode well to winning their first playoff game since 2016.
Lastly, I wanted to provide a table of the AEP details for more context:
While the Steelers offense made strides as a more explosive offense than recent seasons, they lacked explosive plays of 40 yards or more. Eight double-explosives (40-plus), no triple-explosives (60-plus), and eight explosive touchdowns in 2024. Pittsburgh went 5-3 in games they had a double explosive, and 6-1 when they had an explosive touchdown, the latter one of my biggest hopes for Super Wildcard weekend.
The defense allowed even more double-explosives (12), and allowed multiples in three games: Week Eight vs. Giants, Week 13 vs. Cincinnati, and in the most recent Week 16 34-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Certainly a factor in the loss, and will likely need to be less, as it was en route to a Steelers victory in Week 11. Knock on wood that is the case, giving Pittsburgh the edge in the best of three series as opposed to getting one and done postseason, an all too familiar feeling of late in the Steel City.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
