Today, I wanted to provide some valuable team metrics in sight of the playoffs. The three main stats I use are Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A), Turnovers and Explosive Plays (TOX), and Successful Run Rates. The cumulative calculations are called CATS for short.
First, let’s look at ANY/A: (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + (20* Passing TD) – 45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked). Using the differential for offenses (OANY/A) and defenses (DANY/A), this is the most predictive individual stat in predicting Super Bowl Winners that I have found in my studies:
The Pittsburgh Steelers ranked better on defense, with a 5.7 DANY/A that ranked seventh in the 2024 season, while the offense posted a 6.2 OANY/A that tied for 13th. Those rankings sound encouraging overall, especially compared to struggles in years past. But my recent in depth 2024 Regular Season ANY/A Rankings unveiled serious down trends against playoff bound teams on both sides of the ball.
Along with that, in my CATS article through Week 9, the numbers were a 6.8 OANY/A and 5.1 DANY/A. Not what you want to see heading into the postseason, and it must improve to reach their ultimate goals.
The Baltimore Ravens will be a tough challenge on Saturday night’s Super Wildcard matchup. They had the NFLs best 9.3 OANY/A, over an entire point better than any 2024 offense, and a historically great number. Their defense also improved the last half of the year, from a well below average 7.1 DANY/A through Week 9, to a 6.1 number landing slightly above the mean.
They have stepped up against strong competition, while Pittsburgh has floundered to close the 2024 season. This is the fear, but hopefully the playoffs will look much different to continue January football.
Next, let’s look at turnovers and takeaways:
Pittsburgh was above average on the season with 33 defensive takeaways that tied for the NFL’s best and 17 turnovers on offense (tenth). Largely encouraging again, but the offense hasn’t taken care of the football as well after tying for fourth midway through the season.
The Steelers had just five turnovers through nine games and 12 since their bye week. Comparatively, the defense had 15 takeaways the first nine games and 18 since then. Baltimore has just 11 turnovers, trending positively to end the year at third-best, while the defense ranks similarly and below average (T-20th).
The turnover culture in the Steel City is their identity for success (or failure). Pittsburgh won the turnover battle in both regular season Ravens matchups, but the other components we’ll look at the rest of the way will emphasize why the Week 11 18-16 victory, and Week 16 34-7 loss transpired so differently.
Explosive plays are of course very impactful to a teams success:
Yet another aspect of Baltimore’s offense that led the league. Their 84 explosive plays were five more than any other offense, as they’ve were the majority of the year. This is enough of a challenge itself, but the Ravens defense has vastly improved as well, soaring to an average 61 explosives allowed, after having 45 the first nine games, one of the worst in the NFL.
The Steelers are above the mean in each and made great strides overall this season with top ten ranks in each: 57 explosives allowed on defense (T-ninth), 66 offensive explosives (tenth). But as this recent explosive vs. adjusted explosive plays article revealed, Pittsburgh’s offense down trended amidst their losing streak, along with lacking extreme explosive plays (40-plus yards).
Teams have figured out QB Russell Wilson and the passing offense of late, with it largely being a moon-ball or short target with him. Has avoided intermediate passing compared to most QBs, and must have strong adjustments that include this to get out of their rut in my opinion.
Pittsburgh’s defense had a rough go in Week 15 against Philadelphia which started the teams losing streak, but have trended positively since. On the year, they also kept a lid on extremely explosive plays as well, a top-five unit in that regard. That will surely be needed against Baltimore’s potent offense that is red hot, with QB Lamar Jackson’s improved passing.
Their run game is also lethal, with the most rushing explosives in the NFL, fueled by RB Derrick Henry to boot.
Here are successful run rates, defined as six yards or 40 percent of the needed yardage on first down, six yards or 50 percent of the needed yardage on second down, and third or fourth downs gaining the needed yardage for a first down or a touchdown:
Yup, the Ravens are also one of the NFLs best in run success rates on offense, at 60.23 percent, ranked second in the league in 2024. This allows them to stay in advantageous situations overall, taking a profit including a third rank in third down conversion rate and NFL’s best red zone touchdown rate. Wow.
Baltimore’s run defense has been similarly steady to their strong reputation, at a 50.55 percent success rate that ranked ninth. That is discouraging considering Pittsburgh’s running game largely underachieved expectations in 2024, with a 50.5 percent success rate that ranked a lowly 27th. Yikes.
Furthering that pain was falling off the cliff since the bye week, when the Steelers dipped all the way to a 31st ranked run success rate. This is a huge reason to how poor the offense has looked, particularly in their losing streak, and making things tough on the pass game.
Another discouraging factor is struggling on first drives, allowing teams to get up on them and having to get away from the run too often, particularly against teams in the postseason. Of course, leads to getting behind the chains, and far too many empty drives that includes an average third down offense, but a 29th ranked red zone offense.
Pittsburgh’s defense landed slightly above the mean in 2024 with a 52.15 percent success rate allowed, ranking 15th. Season splits reveal great and bad though. Through Week 9, the defense ranked third-best as a stifling run defense, but plummeting all the way to 29th post bye.
So, Pittsburgh’s presumed identity going into the 2024 season went completely missing on both sides of the ball the last half of the season, and was never up to snuff throughout the year overall. We did see encouraging moments in all aspects I looked at today though. The potential is there, but several recent downtrends of late, namely against playoff bound teams really tamper expectations for Pittsburgh to make postseason noise.
Of course, I hope they prove me wrong.
To close, here’s a table offense/defense differentials of the stats used today, sorted by CATS differential. Included are ranks, along with colored team names contending in the postseason, and Pittsburgh bolded:
Comparing to the rest of the NFL, Pittsburgh landed at seventh-best in CATS differential in the 2024 regular season. They ranked sixth through Week 9, namely due to the defense ranking top ten across the board. At that time, here were the differential rankings: ANY/A (seventh), TOX (fourth), run success (ninth). In the latter half of the year, we see things fell across the board: ANY/A (12th), TOX (sixth), and particularly run success (18th).
That’s an excruciating fact having to start the postseason against Baltimore, one of the strongest rushing games and offenses in the NFL, along with an improved defense that has played the run well more consistently. Looking at the differential ranks, we also see the Baltimore Ravens rank third in CATS differential, including a top rank in ANY/A differential, and one of just two teams with top three differential ranks across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers definitely have their work cut out for them, and hopefully look much better than the four game demise to end the 2024 season.
