Even ending with an ankle injury, T.J. Watt is coming off a strong game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Two sacks, a forced fumble, he made splash plays and vaulted himself near the top of the NFL sack leaderboard, now just one back from the Cincinnati Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson. After seemingly losing ground to Myles Garrett earlier this year, Watt is back on top and should cruise to his second DPOY award. Right?
Not if the Denver Broncos have something to say about it. They have two defenders hot on Watt’s heels for the award. There’s CB Patrick Surtain II with his four picks, NFL-leading 132 interception return yards, 11 pass breakups, and overall resume as one of the game’s top corners.
But the name gaining the most steam is EDGE rusher Nik Bonitto. He’s had an impressive season and been remarkably consistent. A full sack in 10 of 14 games to give him 11.5 on the season, the same number as Watt. Like Watt, Bonitto has found ways to make plays beyond just sacks. Two weeks ago, he picked-sixed Cleveland Browns QB Jameis Winston for a 71-yard score.
In Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts, a game that clinched Pittsburgh’s playoff spot, he did it again with a 51-yard runback.
Overall, Bonitto and Watt’s DPOY resumes are similar. Here’s how they break down in the major categories.
| Stat | T.J. Watt | Nik Bonitto |
|---|---|---|
| Sacks | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| QB Hits | 27 | 20 |
| TFL | 18 | 14 |
| FFs | 6 | 2 |
| Def. TDs | 0 | 2 |
| Tackles | 54 | 41 |
No question, Watt still holds the overall edge only tied in sacks and only losing in defensive scores. But Bonitto’s in range. Oddsmakers have begun to take notice. Caesar Sportsbook has rocketed Bonitto up to the third-best odds at +600 only trailing Watt (-150) and Surtain (+400). FanDuel is in a similar boat placing Bonitto at +650. Again, that’s third behind Watt (-160) and Surtain (+340).
Myles Garrett has faded sitting middle-of-the-pack on most boards, ranging from +1500 on DraftKings to +3300 on FanDuel. The reality is that on an underachieving defense for one of the worst teams in football, it’s hard to take home hardware. Right or wrong, winning is what gets you in the door of a voter’s mind. Watt has it in Pittsburgh and with Denver sitting at 9-5 and strong chances to make the playoffs, Bonitto has it, too.
This isn’t an advertisement or endorsement for Bonitto to win it. Watt remains the DPOY favorite and has great reasons to be in pole position. And as of PFF’s latest posting, Watt is being chipped at triple the rate Bonitto has. That makes his numbers look even stronger. Fair or not, Watt has significantly higher name recognition than Bonitto which always gives him a leg up, too. Any tie goes to Watt and right now, Bonitto isn’t even that close.
It’s just to say if someone is going to trip Watt up at the very end, it’s Bonitto. If he pops off the last three weeks with more big plays while Watt literally and figuratively limps to the finish line, Bonitto might just shock the world. But he wouldn’t have snuck up on Watt. He’s been building a great season all along.
