As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 16 game against the Baltimore Ravens.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Defense Gets Back To Basics
Nothing magical about how the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense can improve in this one. Tackle and communicate. Those were the two big issues in Sunday’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Truth be told, the Steelers’ game plan was actually pretty solid. The execution was just a wreck.
Tackle in space, get on the same page and don’t bust so many coverages and the Steelers will return to a unit that’s hard to beat. They’ve shown they can keep Baltimore’s passing game in check if they don’t do things to hurt themselves. Unfortunately, these issues have crept up more on the road than they have at home.
2. Team Wins Turnover Battle
Super simple and obvious, but it’s a reason why Pittsburgh has had success against Lamar Jackson. The Steelers’ defense creates turnovers and big plays. They steal drives, they shorten games, they keep points off the board. Not just because they’re a brick wall that can’t be penetrated, but because they’re opportunistic and have a strong turnover culture.
Even after Sunday’s loss, Pittsburgh moved up in turnover differential margin, now plus-18 and tied for the NFL’s best mark with the Buffalo Bills. It’s the Steelers’ top mark since 1972. Winning the turnover battle doesn’t always guarantee a victory, three of their four losses this year have come despite it, but it sure goes a long way.
3. Pass Game Can Find Explosives
George Pickens or not, the offense has to create chunk plays in the pass game. They won’t get it as frequently in the ground attack against a stout Ravens’ front and can’t try to march their way downfield. Whether it’s scheme or individual effort, it’s gotta get created.
In Weeks 1-13 with Pickens, the Steelers had 45 completions of 20-plus yards, an average of 3.8 per-game and second in the league. The last two weeks, they have five, an average of 2.5 per-game and in the bottom-third.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Justin Tucker Seeks – And Gets – Revenge
Tucker rightfully felt plenty of heat in the first Steelers-Ravens game after missing two field goals in what turned out to be a two-point loss. He’s had a tough season overall, but the team seems confident he can bounce back. He got a bye week to reset, and though he didn’t attempt a field goal in Week 15 against the New York Giants, he hit all five of his extra points.
At home, he’s missed only three field goals as opposed to the five he’s clanked on the road. He’s struggled and Pittsburgh has an elite leg in Chris Boswell, but Tucker isn’t one to count out.
2. Schedule Obstacles Stack Up
Pittsburgh is not in control of the schedule and it’s been known since its May release. None of this is new. But staring it in the face, man, it really does suck. The Steelers are on a short week travelling on the road to Baltimore after playing a physical road game in Philadelphia against a Ravens’ team who rested starters by the fourth quarter of their Week 15 win over the Giants and had a bye two weeks ago.
That is a lot working against Pittsburgh and in Baltimore’s favor. It can be overcome, and the Steelers have a way of standing tall when their backs are against the wall, but it’s easy to see why the Ravens have the advantage here.
3. Derrick Henry Becomes Batman; Justice Hill Is Robin
After a quiet run game showing in the previous matchup, you know Baltimore wants to get going on the ground again. Derrick Henry had just 13 carries against the Steelers in Week 11 and only six after halftime for a paltry 13 yards. Their run game commitment and plan will likely be better if they can possess the ball longer this time around.
Hill is their third-down and pass-catching option who could be used the way Kenneth Gainwell had success against the Steelers last weekend. If those guys have the game that the Ravens envision, they’ll be difficult to beat.
Prediction
Steelers: 20
Ravens: 17
Season Prediction Record
7-7
