There is still one week to play in the regular season, but the Pittsburgh Steelers’ path to a division title has narrowed significantly. Three consecutive losses for the Steelers and three consecutive wins for the Baltimore Ravens have flipped the AFC North on its head.
After having over a 70-percent chance of winning the AFC North just a few weeks ago, the Steelers have taken a dramatic tumble down to 6.9 percent, according to ESPN FPI. That means they now have a 93.1-percent chance of becoming a Wild Card team. They can still finish with any Wild Card seeding.
To win the division, it’s pretty simple: The Steelers need a win and need the Ravens to lose. There can be no ties involved. The Steelers play the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18 while the Ravens play the Cleveland Browns. The Browns already beat the Ravens once, but a sweep would be pretty shocking with how hot the Ravens have been as of late. That scenario I laid out is being given just a 6.9-percent chance of happening.
If the Steelers win, but don’t end up winning the division, then they would end up being the top AFC’s Wild Card team, which guarantees a road trip to play the Houston Texans in the opening round of the playoffs.
If they lose or tie in Week 18, then they can end up as any of the three Wild Card seeds. The pertinent teams to watch are the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. The Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals all still have slight chances for the playoffs, but they cannot pass the Steelers and thus do not matter for their seeding.
The Broncos play the Bengals in Week 17 and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. The Chargers play the New England Patriots in Week 17 and the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18. The Steelers have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams, so if any of them finish with the same 10-win record as the Steelers, then Pittsburgh will get the higher Wild Card seed unless one of them ties and has a 10-6-1 record for a better win-loss percentage.
To further complicate things, the Broncos will play the Chiefs in Week 18 against a resting group. The Chiefs secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, so they will likely rest key starters, following Andy Reid’s extensive history of doing so.
The Steelers could potentially get some help from an opponent resting starters as well. If the Broncos beat the Bengals this week, then they will be eliminated from playoff contention. It might be too risky to play Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and certain other key starters in a meaningless contest, though I am less certain that the Bengals will rest starters than the Chiefs.
At the very least, they would have nothing to play for other than slightly changing the Steelers’ Wild Card seed. It’s not exactly the spoiler’s rallying cry that divisional opponents can get behind.
If the Steelers don’t earn the fifth seed, they will either be on the road against the Buffalo Bills or the Baltimore Ravens. They got embarrassed in the first round of the playoffs last year against the Bills, and they just got blown out on the road against the Ravens last week.
If they win the division, however low the chances may be, the Steelers will host either the Chargers or Broncos. They beat the Chargers at home and the Broncos on the road earlier in the season.
Given the current trajectories of all teams, losing the division and traveling to Houston may actually be the preferable result, though it would give the Steelers only a miniscule chance of hosting a playoff game, needing three upsets in the Wild Card round for that to happen.
