If you want the secret to why Mike Tomlin and Andy Reid have won so many regular season games throughout their careers, it’s because their teams lock down wins in the final moments when victory is on the line.
Also, Hall of Fame quarterbacks. That’s a nice ace up your sleeve, too.
For years, I’ve touted Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ ability to win one-score games. Even when it seems like they’ll inevitably regress to the mean, Pittsburgh keeps winning tight contests, often giving them the “winning ugly” moniker. However, Andy Reid’s Chiefs have done similar things with Mahomes. Especially over the past two seasons, when their offense stopped putting up video game numbers, Kansas City has won by closing out contests and making one more play than their opponent: a key Mahomes’ conversion, a big defensive stop, a doinked field goal at the buzzer.
Since Andy Reid was hired by the Chiefs in 2013, he and Mike Tomlin are the best one-score coaches in football. Here are the top five winning percentages.
Best Winning % In One-Score Games (2013-2024)
1. Pittsburgh Steelers: .647
2. Kansas City Chiefs: .636
3. Miami Dolphins: .606
4. Green Bay Packers: .604
5. Minnesota Vikings: .579
Not only are Pittsburgh and Kansas City first and second, but they are by a wide margin over the third-place Miami Dolphins. The Steelers and Chiefs have also played plenty of these games. Pittsburgh has 116, second-most of any team behind the Los Angeles Chargers’ 121, while Kansas City is tied ninth at 107.
Of course, the fact that the Steelers and Chiefs have plenty of wins, period, helps their percentage. But there isn’t a direct correlation between winning close and total victories, at least for successful franchises. The Seattle Seahawks are tied with Pittsburgh for the most total wins over that span but are eighth in one-score games. The Baltimore Ravens have the sixth-most wins but are just 19th in one-score contests, the New England Patriots fifth and 12th, and the Denver Broncos 14th and 24th.
This year, the Chiefs are winning close at historic levels. Eleven of their fourteen wins have come by one possession, three more than any other team. That ties the record with the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Pittsburgh is less impressive but held steady, 6-3 in one-score games this year.
If Wednesday’s game comes down to the wire, the two best coaches at winning close and winning late will go toe-to-toe with two quarterbacks who can engineer victory. Since Patrick Mahomes was drafted in 2017, he and Wilson lead the league with 19 fourth-quarter comebacks. It could make for one awesome finish for a national crowd. And make one of these fanbases heartbroken on Christmas.
