The Pittsburgh Steelers’ game on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns isn’t a must-win—but it might as well be. While they are favored to win, anything can happen, especially in the division. In multiple ways, if they slip up and lose to the Browns, they completely lose all margin for error. And it puts the Ravens in charge of their own destiny.
Put simply, if the Ravens win out, and the Steelers lose to the Browns and Ravens, Baltimore wins the AFC North, according to ESPN’s Playoff Machine. In that scenario, they will have split the season series, 1-1, but will lose the first tiebreaker. The Steelers would finish 3-3 in the AFC North, the Ravens, theoretically, 4-2, and that would be all.
Then the Steelers would be jockeying for Wild Card seeding, ranging anywhere from fifth to seventh. So the Steelers better manage to go 2-1 at least in their remaining divisional games, even if the loss is to Baltimore.
Of course, the Steelers’ final game against the Browns means even more than that. It is their final game before they have to play the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs in consecutive weeks. And the games against the Eagles and Ravens are on the road, so they have to defend home field against Cleveland.
While the Ravens also suffered a surprising defeat at the hands of the Browns, they are already 2-0 against the Bengals. The Steelers still have three division games to play, currently at 2-1, while the Ravens have two. And they are 2-2 in those games but would be 3-2 with a win over the Steelers.
The good news is that the Steelers are still in decent shape if they beat the Browns and lose to Baltimore. Well, sort of, anyway. They would still control their destiny as long as they beat the Browns. Ands as long as they beat the Bengals in Week 18, they could afford a loss to the Chiefs or Eagles.
Helped by the fact that the Ravens already lost to both the Chiefs and Eagles, the Steelers would win the third tiebreaker: record against common opponents. The Steelers could finish 4-2 in the division, 1-1 against the Ravens, with the same record, and win the division.
That’s what is at stake on Sunday when the Steelers host a Browns team that won in the elements the last time the archrivals played. A win is a win and a loss is a loss, but a division win or loss weighs more. Again, to simplify it further: beat the Browns and Bengals and you’re in good shape. The Steelers can lose two out of three to the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs if they beat the Ohio teams.
Of course, they can solve all (or most) of their problems if they simply beat the Ravens. And the Steelers have a shockingly good record against Baltimore in recent years, so it’s not exactly a rarity. But if the Steelers beat the Browns and Ravens, then they can lose out the rest of the year. The Ravens can go 3-0 in their other three games (which is very possible), but the Steelers just need two more wins, as long as one is over the Ravens. They can even lose to both the Browns and Bengals as long as they beat the Ravens and one other. But that wouldn’t be the easiest road.
