While the Pittsburgh Steelers offense made strides in 2024, there is certainly more meat on that bone. Today, I wanted to look at how passing offenses have fared through Week 17, using success rates by down, game halves, and weekly views. Let’s jump right in.
First, let’s look at early down success rates league-wide (with scrambles, kneels, spikes, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):
- First Down Pass Success = A pass that gains 40-percent or more of the needed yardage.
- Second Down Pass Success = A pass that gains 50-percent or more of the needed yardage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are below the mean in each, particularly on first down, but not to the extent of their rushing success rates through Week 15. First-down passing has been 50.6-percent successful (23rd), while a 48.9 number on second-down ranks 19th. There’s been an overall downtrend as of late against playoff-bound teams, which is not what you want to hear with the postseason on the horizon.
Speaking of which, we see several teams on the top right will be extending their play into January. Buffalo and Green Bay are exceptions but are fantastic on second down. Tampa Bay is far and away the NFL’s best on first down (66.8), and Baltimore leads on second downs with 59.2 success. The Saints have the lowest 43.1 on first down, and a team Pittsburgh could face, Houston, has a league-worst 39.8 on second down.
Vying for their postseason ticket is another top-right team and divisional matchup in the finale: The Cincinnati Bengals. They are well above average in each, with 59.9 success on first down (third) and 54.8 on second down (eighth). Top ten in each, as a potent passing attack in this crucial and meaningful matchup. They are hot on a four-game winning streak, while Pittsburgh has lost the last three.
Here are late downs, where third and fourth downs that pick up a first down are considered a success:
The Steelers rank 22nd on late downs, with 34.4-percent success. This has been an issue, on the wrong side of that equation, against many of their recent opponents on both sides of the ball.
This includes their last Christmas Day matchup against Kansas City, who lead the league in late down pass success at 47-percent. Then it’s Cincinnati at 45.3 percent. Baltimore and Philadelphia are also in the top eight, so Pittsburgh has faced this challenge a lot recently, and will be the case again in the finale against the Bengals with more hopeful success.
Now for the full picture, total rushing success rates:
Pittsburgh is 20th in the NFL in total pass success, at 44.7 percent. For context, the Bucs top the league at 55.7 percent, and Cleveland’s 38.7 success rate in the AFC North is the NFL’s worst.
In totality, Cincinnati ranks third with a 53.8 passing success rate. This aids their ability to put up points in bunches, which Pittsburgh withstood to win the first matchup 44-38. That’s not how the Steelers typically win, and they will likely need a similar performance against their passing prowess.
I was also curious to see how rush offenses have performed by half:
Pittsburgh’s game halves are also below the mean. Their lower 45.7 success in the first half (24th) makes sense as a frustrating and consistently slow starting offense, compared to 43.5 in the second half (20th). Still, without a first-drive touchdown in 2024, they have also gotten behind early against several teams, including last week against the defending champs.
How you finish games is more important, but the lack of emphasis on getting a strong start has dug the Steelers into a hole too often. This is another factor in their losing streak, and it simply won’t cut it against the best teams in football consistently. Pittsburgh’s last two opponents have done that regardless of halftime, which is also true for their next challenge in the Bengals.
To wrap up, let’s look at a weekly breakdown for added context:
Overall, it’s been a bleak success rate picture for Pittsburgh’s passing offense. Just five games above the league average (46.9). Two came with QB Justin Fields in Weeks Three and Four (1-1 record).
Russell Wilson took over in Week Seven, starting clearly below the line in his first four games, providing highlight plays but not the consistent success of his peers. Then, there was a more intense roller coaster, including the last three losses, with two below the line. His worst mark of 2024 came in that stretch against a strong Philadelphia defense that limited Pittsburgh to 26.1 passing success, the tenth-worst this season.
The bright side is Wilson’s best result, against Cincinnati in Week 13, with a 64.9 success rate that ties for 18th best in all of 2024. That is encouraging and will hopefully reoccur for the Steelers offense to end the regular season on a higher note. The caveat is that the Bengals’ pass defense has made some strides since, so that will be interesting to watch play out.
Pittsburgh’s defense has gone the other way, unfortunately, and they face the potent passing attack led by Joe Burrow. Communication has been an issue far too late in the season, and hopefully, with the tough stretch of three tough opponents in 11 days in the rearview, the “mini bye-week” and returning health to the unit will all aid in their return to a more dominant unit like we saw earlier this year.
Here’s to hoping these critical things occur, which will fuel more optimism and launch the Steelers into the playoffs. Thanks for reading, and please let me know your thoughts in the comments.
