The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) were humbled by the 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, plain and simple. The offensive efforts were just that, pun intended. Unable to possess the ball, and were behind the chains far too often in the 27-13 loss.
Today, I wanted to look at these undesirable third and long situations (>= seven yards to go), add context with league-wide comparisons by game and on the season.
First, let’s look at a weekly view through Week 15 including attempts (logo size) and success rates (converting a first down).
Lots of valuable info. For starters, Pittsburgh’s most recent loss against the Eagles was clearly below the line, with 12.5-percent success going 1-for-8. Those eight attempts tied for third-most of Week 15 across the NFL, despite a historically low time of possession number. So, far too often, also tying for the most third and longs in a game for Pittsburgh in 2024.
Eight attempts has occurred in two other games this season, in Weeks Eight and Ten. The difference was higher success, with 50 and 25-percent success rates that were above the 23.9-percent league average (thin red line), winning both of those games on either side of the bye week.
While the goal is to avoid the situation entirely, we see that Week 15 was by far the worst quality and quantity on third and longs for the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers offense. Limiting self-inflicted wounds would go a long way.
For more context, here are all of Pittsburgh’s third down situations of Week 15: 3rd and 22, 3rd and 20, 3rd and 18, 3rd and 18, 3rd and 10, 3rd and 9, 3rd and 8, 3rd and 7, 3rd and 2, 3rd and 1.
So, 8-of-10 third downs the Steelers faced on Sunday were third and longs, including five-straight three and out fails to start the game. The only third and long conversion was a 3rd and goal on the nine-yard line, a rare highlight for the offense on the lone touchdown from TE Pat Freiermuth. Great catch like a basketball rebound over the DB. The two third and shorts were both conversions by QB Russell Wilson with his legs.
Overall though, we get lots of context to the pain that was the Steelers offense that felt like it was stuck in quicksand. Looking at the dots on the visual, we can see that it isn’t uncommon to lack success in the situation.
The hope is this was an outlier for Pittsburgh, and trend positively the last three games to close the year. When looking at the season in its entirety, Pittsburgh’s offense has proven capable of this optimistically.
The Steelers have an above average third and long success rate in 9-of-14 games in 2024 (64.3-percent). Six of these came with Wilson at QB, an encouraging truth as Pittsburgh looks to right the Week 15 wrongs. Recent success is also encouraging, with comfortably above average success, and limiting the times they were in the situation in Weeks 12-14 against the AFC North.
Baltimore is the next challenge, and unfortunately was the only other below average success (14.3-percent) with Wilson at the helm, in their first Week 11 matchup. 1-of-7 on third and longs, so similar issues to the pain we saw last game.
Here are the third down situations from Week 11 to compare, and see what their looking to remedy against the Ravens 3rd and 20, 3rd and 20, 3rd and 10, 3rd and 10, 3rd and 8, 3rd and 7, 3rd and 7, 3rd and 5, 3rd and 4, 3rd and 4, 3rd and 1, 3rd and 1, 3rd and 1, 3rd and 1.
While there were several third and longs, Pittsburgh was in more manageable situations overall. But, going 4-of-16 on all third downs (25-percent) was another unfortunate issue, including several of the short down and distance situations.
Thankfully, a final 3rd and 1 run conversion from RB Najee Harris allowed the Steelers to kneel out the nail-biting 18-16 win in typical AFC North fashion. Showing third down improvements is one of my biggest hopes for the Week 16 rematch.
Here’s a brief look at the season, with the success numbers we’ve been looking at, along with expected points added (EPA):
Pittsburgh: 83 attempts (T-20th), 26.5 success (12th), 0.15 EPA (fifth).
We clearly see an encouraging flipside in the 2024 season, despite the demise of Week 11 and 15. Both strong defenses that deserve a ton of credit. Pittsburgh’s offense will surely be pissed on what occurred last game, and will hopefully look much better across the board, including limiting and finding more success on third and longs starting with Baltimore. That would likely aid a positive trend to close out the year strong.
Now for the other side of the ball, looking at defenses success rates and EPA this season (through Week 15):
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is also an above the mean unit on third and longs. Here are their numbers and ranks: 87 attempts (T-fifth), 21.8 success (10th), -0.19 EPA (12th).
Forcing the opposing offense into the fifth-most third and long situations is an impressive starting point, and limiting them on a top ten success rate stand out most. EPA is also strong, encouragingly.
What has their top ten success rate in 2024 looked like by week? Here you go:
The Steelers defense has largely been good, as expected from the previous view, above average in 8-of-14 games this season (57.1-percent). But in 3-of-4 Pittsburgh losses this season, it’s been below the line defensive success, including last week against Philadelphia.
In that contest, the Steelers defense allowed a 33.3-percent success, on a 2-for-6 conversion rate. That tied for third-most of the season, on a higher volume than Cincinnati in Week 13 (1-of-3). Pittsburgh’s worst success rates allowed came much earlier in the season, with the Colts and Cowboys converting 50-percent of their third and longs. Indianapolis was more concerning of the two losses, allowing higher 4-of-8 numbers.
There have been some high output games as well, with the more third and long attempts obviously being ideal on defense. The Week Eight Giants game was 11 third and longs defended, tied for sixth-most across the entire NFL in 2024, but allowed a 28.6-percent success rate. The second Cleveland matchup Week 14 was another they got the opposition behind the chains in, with ten third and longs (T-12th most), limiting them to 20-percent success.
The caveat are these offenses are far from elite, some of the worst in football in fact. Can only face who’s on your schedule, but adds important context to Pittsburgh’s nice marks in totality this season.
While the Steelers have four games of 0.0-percent success rates allowed, this point is also true for that level of competition: Falcons (hobbled QB Kirk Cousins), Chargers (QB Justin Herbert injured), and bad Raiders and Cleveland offenses. Overall, all of their other above the line success rates came on “less than” offenses, with Washington the exception.
Pictures speak a thousand words, and context matters. These are concerns that a team already in the playoffs needs to improve if they hope to make noise there. The next three games against tough opponents hopefully go well, and serve as dress rehearsals for just that optimistically. Can’t wait to see what this looks like to close out the 2024 season.