With Week 16 in the books, I wanted to provide a favorite stat at Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A). ANY/A is Passing yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked).
For in depth takeaways earlier this season, check out my last 2024 ANY/A Stats Week 13. First, here is a visual for passing offenses (OANY/A) and defenses (DANY/A). NOTE – Week 16 is pre-Monday Night Football:
The Pittsburgh Steelers still have an above-average offense but have considerably regressed on defense as of late. Their 6.2 DANY/A now ranks 15th in the NFL, after having a much better 5.3 DANY/A through Week 13. This is a huge factor in their back-to-back losses against solid playoff teams in the 12-3 Philadelphia Eagles (27-13) and 10-5 Baltimore Ravens (34-17).
Both losses were extremely painful, but we do see they came at the hands of the league’s best on either side of the ball. Philadelphia’s biggest strength has been defense, with a 5.1 DANY/A, evidenced by the low point total they held Pittsburgh to (13). Baltimore is the NFL’s best on offense, with a 9.3 OANY/A over a full point stronger than any other, putting 34 on Pittsburgh last game after just 16 points in Week 11.
No excuses. But if you are looking for the silver lining, injuries on Pittsburgh’s defense notably align with their discouraging recent play. Substantial names include DL Larry Ogunjobi and S DeShon Elliott, CBs Donte Jackson and Joey Porter Jr., and star EDGE T.J. Watt had an ankle injury that he was tough enough to play through.
Every team deals with injury, and Pittsburgh’s also dealt with a huge absence of WR1 George Pickens the last three games. Despite this, Pittsburgh’s 6.7 OANY/A rose barely from 6.6 since Week 14. While they’ve had their fair share of issues, I didn’t have that on my bingo card upon Pickens’ injury.
Kansas City is the next challenge, the biggest outlier of the historically great predicter of Super Bowl winners. Their defense is an above-average one at 6.0 DANY/A, tied with several teams for eighth. But their offense is the true surprise, with a 5.8 OANY/A that ranks 19th, substantially lower than many would expect.
The Chiefs are of course two time defending champs, and have the best record in the NFL at 14-1. Like I said, true outliers. While they don’t lead in many stat categories on offense, they are number one third down (51-percent) and fourth-best success rate (48.6) are some key strengths this season. For a Steelers’ defense licking their wounds, in play and health, the latter looks to be brighter and will optimistically aid their hopes in handing KC their second loss of 2024.
If so, they must limit their strengths, while capitalizing on some weaknesses in comparison. They’ve lacked in explosive plays, but take care of the ball similar to Pittsburgh (each tie for seventh). The offenses are also similar in points per game (KC 11th, PIT 12th) and red zone (KC 26th, PIT 30th).
With the concerning showings from Pittsburgh’s defense recently, let’s at their weekly 2024 results first:
Right away, we see that Pittsburgh’s defense is coming off their two worst DANY/A performances of the 2024 season by far. They’ve had Baltimore’s number, but their number one OANY/A of the NFL (by far) finally broke the dam against the Steelers defense.
Like I said earlier, the latter wasn’t at full strength, but far from the first time that’s happened. Philadelphia has also been above average on the season (6.6, T-12th), but looked like royalty to Pittsburgh’s defensive standards.
Here are specifics on the last three games, including weekly DANY/A results and stat breakdowns (TDs allowed are subjective):
Week 14 vs. CLE: 3.32. QB Jameis Winston – 24/41 (58.5), 212 pass yards, 2 TDs (S Minkah Fitzpatrick, DeShon Elliott), 2 INTs (DL Keeanu Benton, CB James Pierre), 3 sacks (DL Cam Heyward – 2, EDGE Alex Highsmith), 16 sack yards.
Week 15 vs. PHI: 8.86. QB Jalen Hurts – 25/32 (78.1), 290 pass yards, 2 TDs (CB Donte Jackson, James Pierre), 0 INTs, 3 sacks (EDGE T.J. Watt – 2, Highsmith), 20 sack yards.
Week 16 vs. BAL: 8.88. QB Lamar Jackson – 15/23 (65.2), 207 pass yards, 3 TDs (S Damontae Kazee, CB Cam Sutton, Fitzpatrick), 1 INT (Fitzpatrick), 1 sack (Highsmith), nine sack yards.
After a largely encouraging performance in the Cleveland revenge game, creating lots of splash, we get more specifics to the Steelers defensive struggles. But first, Pittsburgh has given up multiple passing TDs in all three games, allowing the same number through 14 games previously, wow.
That’s painful to type, along with one of them coming in Week 13, meaning four straight games with multiple passing TDs allowed. That was against QB Joe Burrow, who Pittsburgh is set to face in a meaningful finale game with their inability to claim the AFC North crown last game. Ouch-town.
Big takeaways from the Eagles game were the outstanding completion rate allowed (78.1), with one other 70-plus rate given up to Burrow. Back to Philly, unable to get a pick for only the fourth time this year, last occurring in Week 10. 2Their 90 pass yards was second-most allowed in 2024, including two 100-plus receivers who both scored. Edge rushers were able to get to Hurts a few times, the rare positive.
Then the Baltimore letdown. 23 pass attempts was the least forced all season, emphasizing the sickening run game beat down from the Ravens (220 yards). Only 200-plus rush game allowed this season, a huge downtrend considering several sub-100 yard stifling’s earlier in 2024.
Then two main pass game issues: battered secondary giving up three TDs (two to TEs), including miscommunication. Then, a lack of sacks. Just one. At least Highsmith made noise with a sack in each of the last three games.
One thing’s for sure, lots of tightening up needs to be done if they want to get a victory against the NFLs best Kansas City Chiefs. The troops seemingly will be more full force, and here’s to hoping for undeniable improvement.
Now let’s look at offenses:
Not great either the last two games, as expected, in a very up and down 2024 passing game for Pittsburgh. QB Russell Wilson has been encouraging at times, but a roller coaster as well in these terms. Let’s see the specifics the last three games, after some encouraging marks previously.
Week 14 vs. CLE: 6.93 – 15/26 (57.7), 158 pass yards, 2 TDs (TE Pat Freiermuth, WR Van Jefferson), 0 INT, 1 sack (T Dan Moore Jr.), 11 sack yards.
Week 15 vs. PHI: 5.29 – 14/22 (63.6), 128 pass yards, 1 TD (Freiermuth), 0 INT, 2 sacks (Moore, Wilson), 21 sack yards.
Week 16 vs. BAL: 5.36 – 22/33 (66.7), 217 pass yards, 2 TDs (TE MyCole Pruitt, RB Cordarrelle Patterson), 1 INT (pick six), 3 sacks (T Broderick Jones, G Mason McCormick two each), 19 sack yards.
First, Wilson threw his first pick-six last game, a painful interception after throwing only four all year and none since Week 13 against the Bengals, who he’ll see in the finale rematch. Faced the most pressure he had since Week 12 (17), Jones and McCormick particularly struggling last game against Baltimore last week. You can check out many more painful details in my Steelers Passing Charts Week 16.
The prior two games were low-yardage outputs, worst of 2024 in fact. How were the run games you ask? 120 against Cleveland Week 14, but just 56 against Philadelphia’s stout defense. Stifled Pittsburgh to just 176 total yards. Total yards were there against Baltimore 334, but the mistakes on both sides were detrimental late, and the defense did nothing against the run.
This circles us back to the main question, will the returning health of the Steelers defense equal enough positive trend to beat the daunting task in the Kansas City Chiefs? Hopefully the answer is yes with the ideal Christmas Day gift. Would certainly brighten the stockings through Steelers lenses, who are hoping for more than coal. Here’s to hoping this is the case, along with Pickens return boosting things substantially on offense.
A reloaded deck only helps if you can execute, which hasn’t been so against quality teams of late.
To close, here’s a table of the 2024 ANY/A results, sorted by differential with the goal of showing the most balanced teams:
While it’s been bad recently, the Steelers tie for 11th with a 0.5 differential that’s still in the positive. They were top-ten much of 2024, and 1.3 back in Week 13 though, aiming to get back to that desired group. Here’s to hoping for just that, considering only one team has ever won a Super Bowl with a negative differential.
Much to fix before that optimism for Pittsburgh, but would break precedent if Kansas City were to achieve as three-peat Champions, with a minus-0.2 differential. With two games left, they could easily get a positive number, starting in Pittsburgh Wednesday. Hopefully they’re Scrooge to that hope. Also, Cincinnati has moved into the top-ten, and above Pittsburgh, on a roll particularly on offense that is always tough sledding to close 2024.
Knock on wood, the Pittsburgh Steelers step up to their last two challenges better than the ones they just faced.
