The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 4-2 and on a four-game winning atop the AFC North after gutting out the 28-27 victory against the Washington Commanders (7-3).
Couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. Three throwaways were removed, and a screen pass counted as a run is added.
QB Russell Wilson is undefeated through three games, which is what ultimately matters, but was more up and down in this close victory. Atop the highs were three passing touchdowns, something that hadn’t been done in Pittsburgh since 2021, and included the game-winning 32-yard moon ball for the comeback. The offense remained encouragingly explosive.
It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows though. Wilson went 14/28 on the stat sheet, for just a 50-percent completion rate, lowest of either Steelers starter this season. Very boom or bust, with the latter including accuracy issues, and within that his first interception in the Black and Gold.
There were the three throwaways, two drops, three sacks, and pressures that created some of these issues. But antsier feet than usual especially after taking some shots. 195 passing yards isn’t a slouching total in Pittsburgh compared to recent seasons, but is a low for Wilson to date.
Threw for his longest 12.5 ADOT this game encouragingly, but a season-low 7.0 YPA, particularly with several painful moments outside the fourth quarter. All four of Pittsburgh’s explosive plays were passes, and vastly improved their red zone TD rate to 75-percent in Week 10, which previously 46.4 in 2024 (30th in the NFL).
He was 1-of-4 on charted third down passes in the first half (25-percent), compared to 4-of-6 in the second half (66.7-percent), and 3-of-3 in the fourth quarter. Clutch, no doubt, but really want to see more consistency against great upcoming opponents the rest of the way, sustaining drives and playing keep away from potent offenses.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 26 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for Week 10:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 34.6-percent. Most common again, per usual. The first pass of the game was a familiar play-action boot right, getting it to TE Darnell Washington in the flat at one air yard, lowering his head and churning for YAC and 6-yards.
One example on the second drive was a good throw on an out route to WR George Pickens, but slipped and dropped at four air yards. To begin the second quarter, RB Jaylen Warren caught the checkdown over the middle at the line of scrimmage, able to get just three yards. Couple plays later on 3rd and 6, Wilson hit Pickens on a quick slant at four air yards, but tackled quickly for the five-yard fail.
Enjoyable field position off a Commanders’ muffed punt. This 2nd and goal at the three yard line was a scramble drill (T Dan Moore/G Mason McCormick), where Wilson zipped it to WR Calvin Austin in the end zone near the front pylon, contested and off his hands on another early drop. Wilson also had Pickens wide-open in the back corner of the end zone on the same side.
Next play 3rd and goal, three receivers to the right, including Freiermuth tight. Great concept, running a flat route where the others created legal pick action to create space for the pinpoint throw and three-yard touchdown catch (13-7, second quarter).
Following drive, Wilson tried connecting with Austin in the flat, a miscue where either the depth and/or accuracy was off. First drive of the third quarter, it’s 3rd and 8. Wilson did a great job getting this dump-off out despite a heavy blitz and big QB hit, with green pastures aplenty for Warren at the line of scrimmage, busting it for a 26-yard gain on the first explosive play of the game.
Final example was the last drive, just under four minutes left. Another 3rd down conversion, a nice decisive throw to Freiermuth on the in-breaker over the middle at 5-air yards, and 6-yard gain.
#2. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 26.9-percent. Much higher frequency, and doesn’t get any better than the first example. On the second drive, Pittsburgh is in the red zone (16 yard line). Wilson puts up the jump-ball to his elite playmaker in Pickens, running a slot corner for a miraculous leaping catch with spinning body control and surviving the ground to put the Steelers on the scoreboard first. Jaw-dropping.
Later in the second quarter, the other end of the spectrum. This 3rd and 10 fail was a poor decision, targeting Austin in double coverage on a deep corner/crossing concept that was overthrown at 27 air yards.
Then in the 3rd quarter, Pittsburgh’s backed up and down three points. Wilson faced immediate pressure (T Broderick Jones/McCormick), unleashing a deep go ball to WR Van Jefferson, but threw outside of him and unable to track it toward the sideline at 34 air yards incomplete.
The final drive of the third quarter, Pittsburgh faced 3rd and 14 following a sack. The hits and duress he’d faced would be on my mind too, but not an excuse for happy feet that he never set on the longest heave for a 2024 Steelers QB (52 air yards), with the other thrown prayer to Pickens going for his first interception of the year.
They got that sour taste out of their mouth in the fourth quarter. Wilson throws and absolute drop in the bucket, and great go ball catch just inbounds against tight coverage for the explosive 24-yard gain, wow. Nice ensuing drive of runs that was fueled by this play, but unfortunately crashed to a halt with a Warren fumble turnover at the goal line and down by seven.
2:27 left. 3rd and 9. Wilson faced quick pressure (G Isaac Seumalo), quick releasing again before his feet are set, with this moonball living up to its name to the heavens. Brand new WR Mike Williams is known as a deep threat, providing an amazing track over his head and making the over-shoulder grab at the front pylon for the 32-yard game winning TD. What a play.
T-3rd. Behind-the-Line: 15.4-percent. Ended of the first quarter, Wilson got the screen to Austin, who made a good cut with YAC for seven yards. The following drive started in the red zone (muffed punt turnover), with this 2nd and 7 play-action boot left to Freiermuth going for a nice eight-yard pickup inside the five yard line.
Early fourth quarter is another screen, this one to Pickens who provided tough YAC for four yards, but was clearly doing extra and letting out some frustrations following the interception. An unnecessary hurdle, extremely loose with the ball (one-handed, begging for a strip), and stiff-arming but clearly grabbing the facemask (luckily not called).
Final example was a TE screen to Washington, well outside his frame as Wilson didn’t even look, with a defender right there. Luckily just an incompletion and not more, risky.
T-3rd. 5-10 air-yards: 15.4-percent. Yet to be mentioned was a third quarter 2nd and 8, down ten points. Wilson play-actions, but C Zach Frazier is beat with RB Najee Harris picking it up but pushed back, effecting an inaccurate (low/behind) in-breaker intended for TE MyCole Pruitt at eight air yards between the hashes.
Early fourth quarter, down by six, it’s 3rd and 1. Wilson makes a good throw to Pickens open on a slant (off coverage) at seven air yards, along with YAC for the 12-yard gain. Last example came with 2:31 left, same score. Wilson is blitzed (Warren good pickup, but getting pushed back). Perhaps rushed the timing with Washington’s crossing route over the middle, but also seemingly held as he tried to get his head around, falling incomplete.
#5. 10-15 air-yards: 7.7-percent. Two examples, both at 13 air yards. First was a third quarter 2nd and 20 following a sack. Enjoyed the call and execution, with Wilson making a nice throw on an intermediate slant, and Pickens providing great YAC. Bounced off two forced missed tackles easily, exploding upfield and toying with the defense for a fantastic 34-yard gain to the red zone. Big play to cut into the ten-point deficit.
The other was also big on the final drive, 2nd and 16, still down six. Wilson wants Freiermuth, but good coverage on him and across the board. Pump fakes, extends with a scramble drill right, zipping a tight throw to Austin, who hangs on despite a solid and quick hit for a manageable third down and this ultimately game-winning sequence.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: 3.8-percent. Just one pass, 3rd and 8, first quarter. Wilson triggers to Jefferson deep, but it’s too far/outside of him, perhaps wanting the back-shoulder and not adjusting. This was a big fail that led to a three and out after the special teams fake punt fail, unable to answer Washington capitalizing on the scoreboard.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
Wilson clearly let it rip, with seven explosive air yard passes, mostly to the left. Favored that side generally, particularly struggling to connect outside the numbers. But when he did, oh boy. Two between the hash misses, both to TEs. Good connection to the right, and mostly barren over the middle past ten air yards.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 3/4 (75-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 7/9 (77.8-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 2/4 (50-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 2/2 (100-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 0/1 (0.0-percent).
Explosive: 3/7 (42.9-percent).
Perfect on two attempts at 10-15, which were also impactful plays. Otherwise, lower rates at nearly every pass distance than last week, with behind the line being the exception.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 3/10 (30-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 5/7 (71.4-percent).
Inside hashes: 0/2 (0.0-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 3/3 (100-percent).
Outside right numbers: 3/3 (100-percent).
Though it was less frequent, Wilson was perfect to the right including two TDs, compared to missing both between the hash targets and just 30 percent outside the left numbers (1 TD, 1 INT).
Now for the heat-maps for charted-passes, then completions only:
The first attempts view is by far the heathiest of 2024, and likely since I started these articles in 2022. The completions only view illustrates missed opportunities downfield. Wider map than last week, that featured higher completion rates.
So, it’s refreshing to see the aggression and volume for big air yards, but it’s a lower probability situation that had miscues and accuracy issues as well. Thankfully a few connected in a huge way.
Next, here’s Wilson and Fields’ 230 charted throws of the 2024 regular season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 40.9-percent. Previously 41.7-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 26.1-percent. Previously 24.5-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
#3. Explosive: 14.8-percent. Previously 13.2-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#4. Behind-the-line: 13.0-percent. Previously 12.7-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 9.6-percent. Previously 9.8-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 7.0-percent. Previously 7.4-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
The most notable upticks this week were explosives, as you might’ve guessed, along with 5-10 air yards. Behind the line was also a tick more, while the rest were less than season averages. It’s also interesting to compare 2023 to this year, with more of a sample and all the changes.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 7/10 (70.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 23/29 (79.3-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 10/18 (55.6-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 2/6 (33.3-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 4/7 (57.1-percent).
Explosive: 8/14 (57.1-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/20 (30.0-percent).
Wilson improved behind the line and 10-15 rates, while everything else down-ticked. Having a stronger completion rate past 15 yards compared to 5-15 is interesting. Hopefully the latter improves. Wilson has clearly been more successful past 15 air yards than Fields, who has the stronger marks at less air yards when things were more conservative overall.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 15/27 (55.6-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 12/17 (70.6-percent).
Inside hashes: 0/3 (0.0-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 10/13 (76.9-percent).
Outside right numbers: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 26/33 (78.8-percent).
Outside right numbers: 20/31 (64.5-percent).
Wilson’s better marks (than Fields) are left numbers-left hash and outside the right numbers. Inside the hashes is still the craziest difference, with Wilson lacking success and volume. Possibly avoiding batted passes as a shorter QB? Will be interesting to see if Wilson targets the extreme middle of the field more moving forward.
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
A caveat is Wilson’s maps are still a bit generous with a smaller sample size of throws, particularly completions only. But, close enough to finally illustrate what we’ve felt since he took over, the passing game has opened up more than we’ve seen in Pittsburgh for quite some time.
That will surely be needed the rest of 2024, as the offense hopefully continues to benefit on the scoreboard.
