How “lucky” was the Steelers’ win over the Ravens?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 8-2 after taking down their chief rivals, the Baltimore Ravens. In doing so, they dropped the Ravens down to 7-4 on the season, applying serious pressure in the divisional race. While the Steelers have a tougher schedule, and an extra game to play, the Ravens are in the hole.
And perhaps we can determine how deep that hole is by determining how “lucky” the Steelers got by beating the Ravens. The Ravens, by the way, also have two divisional losses, and who losses in common games where the Steelers have one. And on top of that, they have four conference losses, so the Ravens are behind on tiebreakers.
But we’re just talking about the likelihood that the Ravens will beat the Steelers next time based on how lucky the Steelers’ first win was. So how “lucky” were the Steelers? Well, they forced three turnovers against a team that only had six in their first 10 games. They aren’t likely to repeat that—and they’re not getting another Payton Wilson interception like that.
The Steelers have benefited two years in a row from Ravens receivers dropping gimme balls, particularly Zay Flowers. That’s definitely a variable they can’t control, and conversely, the Steelers generally made their plays. The Ravens haven’t been prone to drops, so again, that’s likely not a repeated variable next time. And no, Justin Tucker probably isn’t going to miss two field goals again.
But is George Pickens going to turn a catch into an incompletion again just because he’s weird? Is the league’s worst secondary going to hold up as well against the Steelers again?
Sure, the Steelers did some low-percentage things on Sunday, and the Ravens made mistakes that had nothing to do with the Steelers forcing them. But there is luck involved in every game. The bottom line is the Steelers generally looked like the better team for most of the day. And field goals don’t give you three points until you make them.
The Steelers’ 2024 season is underway, following another disappointing year ending in a first-round playoff loss. They have had a long offseason since the Buffalo Bills stamped them out of their misery back in January. There are positive signs, but things could jump off the rails any moment.
The biggest question hanging over the team is the quarterback question. Is Russell Wilson earning a lucrative new deal next year, and is Justin Fields still in consideration? How will the team continue to address the depth chart, which is surprisingly still in flux?
The regular season is here, following weeks of camp and preseason games. The Steelers made numerous moves through signings and trade—and release. More than usual, they seemed comfortable creating holes, confident they can fill them. Some they managed to fill, others not so much. Now that we have so many pieces of the puzzle, however, we merely have a new set of questions to ask.
