Today I wanted to provide some valuable team metrics through the midway point of the 2024 season. The three main stats I use are Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A), Turnovers and Explosive Plays (TOX), and Successful Run Rates. The cumulative calculations are called CATS for short.
First, let’s look at ANY/A: (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + (20* Passing TD) – 45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked). Using the differential for offenses (OANY/A) and defenses (DANY/A), this is the most predictive individual stat in predicting Super Bowl Winners that I have found in my studies:
First, we see that Pittsburgh is one of eight teams comfortably above the mean on both offense and defense, encouragingly. Their 6.8 OANY/A ties for 13th in the NFL through Week Nine. That is a big deal, and while it’s not elite like Baltimore (9.7, wow), the Steelers have been below average or worse for several seasons. Here’s to hoping that refreshing fact continues the rest of the way.
Pittsburgh’s 5.1 DANY/A is also strong through nine games, tying for seventh-best. This balance on offense and defense leads to a 1.7 ANY/A differential that also ties for seventh, as one of the better passing game teams on both sides of the ball. Definitely a big factor in their 6-2 record, and could go a long way into finally winning their first playoff game since 2016 if they can keep this up.
A tough schedule does remain though, including strong passing offenses (Baltimore, Washington, Cincinnati, Philadelphia). Less so on defense which bodes well for Pittsburgh’s offense keeping their stride, as Philadelphia has the only above the mean DANY/A.
Next, let’s look at turnovers and takeaways:
Above the mean in each yet again, and even more substantially. Taking care of the football and taking it away is Pittsburgh’s MO. They have executed it at one of the most balanced levels in the NFL, along with some of the NFLs best in Buffalo and Detroit as the only top five teams on both sides of the ball.
The Steelers have just five turnovers on offense and 15 takeaways defensively, each tying for fourth-best league-wide. This has been their main catalyst to a great 2024 season overall, and must continue to reach their ultimate goals.
Washington is up next on the schedule, and has just three turnovers on offense through Week 9, and elite number. Knock on wood Pittsburgh’s defense can change that narrative. Baltimore is also strong, along with Cincinnati and Philadelphia landing above average as well.
Every team on the Steelers remaining schedule lands below the NFL mean in takeaways, again boding well for the offense to hopefully continue their encouraging play.
Explosive plays are of course very impactful to a teams success:
For the first time, Pittsburgh has a below the mean result. That comes on offense, with 30 explosive plays to date, ranking 19th in the NFL. It has trended positively with the last two games when QB Russell Wilson took over, which is true for ANY/A as well, and leads to optimism to trend positively the rest of the year.
The good news has been on defense so far, allowing 25 explosive plays which ties for fifth-least at the midpoint of the 2024 season. That has aided their ANY/A as well, of course, and if the Steelers offense can be above average the rest of the way, look out.
Tough upcoming offenses include the league leading Ravens, Commanders (third), along with the Eagles once again. The two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs emerge, as the best in the NFL at limiting explosive plays substantially with just 17, but well below average in creating them so far (surprisingly). The Bengals have also been well above average on defense.
Here are successful run rates, defined as six yards or 40-percent of the needed yardage on first down, six yards or 50-percent of the needed yardage on second down, and third or fourth downs gaining the needed yardage for a first down or a touchdown:
Here we see Kansas City has been the most dominantly successful running team on both sides of the ball, a major factor in their success as the only remaining unbeaten team at 9-0, whew. The Steelers have had similar success at stopping the run on defense, with a 46.3 DRSR that ranks third in the NFL. The flipside is a 50.0 ORSR that is by far Pittsburgh’s worst 26th rank of the study.
While the Steelers running game has shown flashes, and are 11th in the NFL in total yards, the low success rate points to inconsistency and situational struggles, which should be the main goal of the stats I looked at today to improve.
That might be tough sledding against Kansas City, and two above average defenses in the division (Cleveland and Baltimore), while the Philadelphia, Washington, and Bengals matchups look more advantageous.
Along with the elite Chiefs, three other upcoming opponents have above average run success rates on offense: Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. These three teams kept recurring as strong offenses across the article, presenting a challenge for Pittsburgh’s defense no doubt.
To close, here’s a table of the stats used today showing the differential numbers of teams offenses and defenses along with their ranks, sorted by CATS differential, along with colored team names contending in the postseason:
In totality, Pittsburgh comes out as the sixth ranked team in CATS differential, namely due to the defense being top ten across the board. What a fantastic fact that could bode well to their ultimate playoff aspirations.
The new look 2024 offense has also trended well in areas compared to past years, namely ANY/A from the new QB room, thankfully. The offense’s areas for improvement will hopefully be explosive plays and run success rates.
With Wilson’s explosive ability, and the potential of the running game that’s getting healthier off their bye leads to optimism for improvement. If that’s the case, they could really make noise the rest of the way and put the rest of the NFL on notice. Here’s to hoping for just that.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts about these Steelers stats in the comments.
