If you don’t like run-heavy, slug-it-out, physical football, Sunday’s Steelers-Commanders game might not be for you. Through eight games this season, the Steelers have been who we thought they would be under Arthur Smith, running the ball at the second-highest percentage in the NFL. Don’t be surprised if that percentage bumps up against Washington, says The Athletic’s Robert Mays.
On a recent episode of The Athletic Football Show, Mays said that Smith’s offense might give headaches to the Commanders.
“They want to be a nickel. That is Washington’s base defense [a] nickel defense,” Mays said. “This is going to be a very different challenge when it comes to how heavy the personnel is, and I feel like the Steelers, by playing that way, might force Washington into the sort of game it doesn’t want to play.”
As Mays notes on the podcast, the Steelers’ play style will certainly be a shift for what the Commanders are used to. This season, Washington has played against 13 personnel just nine times. The Steelers average 12 plays a game in 13 personnel, which doesn’t bode well for the Commanders’ nickel defense.
For those who are unfamiliar with the football lingo, 13 personnel means there are three tight ends on the field at a time, a pretty good tell for the defense that a run play is coming. For nickel defenses, that’s not ideal, as they have one less linebacker or defensive lineman in the game in favor of a defensive back.
Running such a heavy nickel scheme has already given Washington problems when defending the run. They rank 28th in the league in rushing yards surrendered per game at 142.3, so it would stand to reason that the Steelers will look to take advantage of that weakness.
“I would not be surprised if for the second straight week that Arthur Smith is looking at the run defense on the other side and says, ‘Yeah, we’re just going to run the ball 35 times,'” Mays said.
With Najee Harris on a tear over his last three games, averaging over 100 yards a game, Jaylen Warren working his way back from an injury and Darnell Washington bullying grown men as a blocker, I’d expect Mays’ prediction to hold true for the Pittsburgh offensive strategy come Sunday.
