As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 7 game against the New York Jets.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Weakside Runs Work
The Buffalo Bills had plenty of run game success running to the weakside of the formation in Week 6’s win over the Jets. Pittsburgh could copy that plan. In fact, the Steelers have found more ground game success the last two weeks partially because they’ve more frequently run away from their tight ends.
The downside is you have fewer blockers but it also means having fewer defenders to block and avoid some of the congestion that’s prevented RB Najee Harris from having runways to get going and downhill. The run game has to work for the Steelers to win and this is a smart way to go about it.
2. Boswell Wins The Day
Boswell has been the driver behind a ton of Steelers’ wins, to many to count. The Jets are having are a tough time on their end with veteran kicker Greg Zuerlein, who has missed four kicks already and two in last week’s loss. Pittsburgh has the edge here and if you’re counting on one of these guys to steal three points at the end of a half or make a late-fourth quarter kick to win the game, it’s gonna be Boz.
3. Smart Mix Of Blitz And Coverage
How DC Teryl Austin approaches QB Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ offense will be really interesting. Pittsburgh is blitzing at a very low rate and return EDGE Alex Highsmith to boost the front four. But Rodgers hasn’t been great against the blitz and New York’s o-line has been poor throughout much of the season. A blitzing game plan is never all-blitz or no-blitz, there’s always a mixture of the two. But how Austin is able to layer it, hopefully by sending a little more pressure, will be key against a vet like Rodgers who gets the ball out fast.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Jets Pass Game Overwhelms, Attacks Beanie Bishop Jr.
Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled the most against a deep group of receivers capable of making plays (Colts and Cowboys). And the Jets have a strong top-three with Davante Adams in the fold to pair with Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard.
The Steelers have played a ton of zone this season and the concern is a guy like Rodgers has a field day against it. Or at the least, his accuracy with the receivers to throw to is just too much for Pittsburgh to handle and they give up big plays and crucial possession downs because of it. Expect Rodgers and the Jets to go after rookie slot corner Beanie Bishop Jr., especially if they can put the 6-5 Lazard on him.
2. Too Much Rust From Russ
Can’t leave out this being Russell Wilson’s first start, even if Mike Tomlin is trying to evade making that official. Entering the lineup mid-season is asking a lot, coming in cold against a warm Jets’ defense that’s been a strong bunch overall. And maybe that rust is just too much overall for a first time out. Miscommunication, throws that are off, and just not looking quite as sharp as Wilson might a month from now are all on the table. And too much of that without the run game element could doom this offense. Especially if the traditional ground game isn’t as effective without Zach Frazier in at center.
3. Sauce Gardner Erases Pickens
Though the Steelers have been looking for receiver help, they still enter this game with the same group they entered the season with. And it makes all the sense for for CB Sauce Gardner to travel and shadow WR George Pickens. That’s not normally been the Jets’ game plan and Gardner has played 250 snaps at left corner this season compared to just 50 on the right side.
But with the Jets missing a couple starting corners, putting Gardner on Pickens just seems obvious. It will require the other corner to be able to move and flip but if New York can make it work and contest with Pickens downfield without drawing DPI, Wilson may struggle to win with his other options.
Prediction
Jets: 31
Steelers: 27
Season Prediction Record
3-3
