Negative plays can downright ruin drives and game outcomes, or aid in staying on schedule if they are limited. The Pittsburgh Steelers have had their fair share of them, and today I wanted to look at and provide data context for both sides of the ball across the league through Week 4.
First, let’s look at negative play (<= 0 yards) rates on all pass and run plays for NFL offenses, with no plays, spikes, and kneels removed:
While I knew things were better than last season, much stronger than expected 25.9 rate that’s sixth-best in the NFL through four games. For comparison, similar studies last year showed Pittsburgh’s offense ranked dead-last through Week 3, with a whopping 44.1 negative play rate which would rank last in 2024 as well. That did improve to 32.7 percent by years end, but was still below average.
So far in 2024, the Steelers negative play rate on runs is 15.8 percent which ranks 13th, while the pass games 37.3 number ranks ninth-best. The latter is of course a higher number considering no gain plays include incompletions, which QB Justin Fields has limited on a high 70.6 completion rate (seventh, min. 100 dropbacks). The ranks really hammer home that the Steelers have been above average in quantity, particularly a top 10 rank in the pass game.
Diving deeper into the quality (or lack thereof), Pittsburgh has lost a ton of yardage on negative plays:
Here we see the painful part of the story, well below average in the majority of their games in 2024. On the season, this moves them all the way down to a 23rd rank on the season, compared to sixth in negative play rate. They have lost 30 yards or more in three of their four games thus far, with 23.1 being the league average. Last game included a painful sack that lost explosive yardage, and went for a fumble turnover to boot.
Add in the poor statistical game as a rusher from RB Najee Harris last game (13 attempts, 19 yards, 1.5 yards per attempt), that pain prompted this study and recent rushing success rates through Week 4 article.
The linked post showed Pittsburgh’s rushing offense ranks 25th in total success rate this season. They actually posted their strongest 60 percent of 2024 last game, well above the 52.2 NFL average in 2024. But, the Steelers had a 17.2 negative play rate, ranking an average 16th for the week.
Comparatively, the pass game had a 40.5 rate that ranked 15th last week. Those rates led to their worst total negative play rate of the season at 30.3. Here are weekly negative play rates for more context:
Limiting the frequency of negative plays was particularly strong to begin the season, but has down trended the last two games. The good news is Week Four’s 30.3 negative play rate was still above the league average (30.8). So, if the Steelers offense can limit cringe-worthy negative plays, the quality will match their stronger quantity so far in 2024.
Another factor that makes Pittsburgh’s negative play rates seem more frequent are penalties, which were removed in the initial view. The Steelers tie for the 11th-most total penalties as a team, and their yardage lost comes in at 16th. Their opponents have been penalized less times, but for more yardage, at eighth-most to date. So, while things need to clean up there as well, being on the plus side here has also benefited their winning record.
Here’s how negative play rates have panned out weekly for defenses:
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has created fewer negative plays than expected, with their 32.7 negative play rate landing 13th in 2024 so far. Definitely didn’t expect the offense to rank notably stronger (sixth) going into the study.
Against the run, Pittsburgh’s defense has a 16.7 negative play rate that ranks lower than expected at 17th, while a 44.6 negative play rate against the pass lands favorably at 10th. Examining the run game further, the Steelers had a 16.1 negative play rate that ranked 18th last week, compared to a 48.3 number against the pass (14th).
Neither are on par for how this team is built to win, with dominant defense as the head of the snake, which was not the case and led to Pittsburgh’s first loss of the season. For comparison, the defense ranked eighth in total negative play rate through Week 3 last season at 35 percent.
Here are the weekly negative play rates for defenses:
This visual points to things not being terrible, but landing around league average overall. Weeks 1 and 4 were slightly below average, beginning 2024 with their lowest 29.2 rate, and only a bit better last game (30.2).
Week 2 against the Broncos was by far the best outing in these terms, their substantially strongest 39.3 negative play rate. This included their lowest point total allowed in 2024 in that 13-6 victory. The other above average performance (slightly) came against the Chargers in Week 3, on a 31.8 number.
Thankfully, an opposite positive storyline compared to the offense is negative play yardage, where Pittsburgh’s defense ties for seventh-best. This means that while the quantity of negative plays has been worse than expected, the quality when doing so has been there.
Here’s a visual showing NFL defenses negative yards forced in 2024:
Overall, Pittsburgh’s defense had a particularly great showing against Los Angeles in the Week 3 win, when they had a season-high 5 sacks. This was the 10th-most negative play yardage in 2024, respectively.
Otherwise, they have not created the lost yardage consistently that you would expect from a dominant unit. Despite having 4 sacks last game, lost yardage was their lowest of 2024 in the loss. The opener was also below average, but got back above the line in Week 2 against Denver. Hoping for more consistency as the season progresses.
Here’s a wrap up rankings table of the negative play data:
The short version of the story on offense is not the frequency of negative plays, but how negative they are when they occur. If that can be cleaned up, that would bring their only below average 23rd negative yardage up, which made their otherwise surprisingly stronger ranks feel much worse than I anticipated.
The defense has been on the positive side of negative yardage, as a top-10 unit. Last game’s worst defensive outing seemed like an outlier, but averaged lower than expected in total negative play rate, and particularly negative plays against the run. While that still ranks slightly above average, here’s to hoping that fares much better moving forward, which would aid a top-10 total rank down the line.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
