As we’ve been doing for many years now, we’ll break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual player standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the Indianapolis Colts’ offense.
Alex’s Scheme Report
Colts’ Run Game
After avoiding him last season, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be facing RB Jonathan Taylor this time around. Still one of football’s top runners, he’s explosive and shifty and is going to be a handful. Josh will talk about him more. On the season, he has 51 of the Colts’ 55 carries. He’s averaging a crisp 5.1 yards with three touchdowns, going over 100-yards the last two weeks. He’s playing 77 percent of the offense’s snaps and is the Colts’ workhorse runner.
QB Anthony Richardson has 18 rushes this year, including a couple kneel downs. Eight of his runs have come on first down and three of them have come inside the opponent’s’ 5-yard line. So alert for him mostly on 1st down on some of their read/designed run stuff and down near the goal line where they can run QB Power and Zone/Arc Read.
The Colts have 15 rushes of 10-plus yards this season. That’s third-most in football. Taylor is responsible for eight of them, tied for fourth and third among all RBs (Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is ahead of him and tied for the league lead). Their five rushing touchdowns are tied for fourth most.
Conceptually, it’s inside zone and power/counter. Two main schemes. Zone scheme is paired with the threat of the QB run and the defense must account for Richardson keeping the ball at the mesh point and carrying it himself. Like the 49ers and Ravens, the Colts will have the backside end be read with the tight end pulling around on split zone and arc block, not blocking the end and moving to the second level. Not always the most successful play and the Colts have been sloppy, but it needs to be defended.
Here’s their power scheme. They can run BASH with the back away from the pullers but also good ‘ol counter trey.
The Colts use pistol to get more downhill action and disguise direction. They also frequently run to the field side and don’t run to the boundary as often, though it is on tape as a tendency breaker.
Some other stats. They’re scoring 19.3 points per game, tied for 17th in the league. They’re also 17th in yards per game so just about average in the main offensive categories. They’ve been good in the red zone, top 10 at 62.5 percent, but the Colts have struggled on third down. They’re 26th at 32.2 percent on the season. The Colts have turned the ball over too much this year with six of them, tied for 28th. Those have all been Anthony Richardson interceptions.
One other key stat. The Colts are No. 1 on first down. They’re gaining 7.5 yards per play on first down. Pittsburgh, by comparison, continues to struggle here at 3.7 yards per play. That’s 31st. We’ll see who is better on first down in this one.
Colts’ Pass Game
After suffering a season-ending shoulder injury early into his rookie year, Richardson is back and will see the Steelers after missing last year’s game against them. He’s off to a rocky start this year and that’s being generous. He’s completing an ugly 49.3 percent of his passes. Even on a smaller three-game sample size, you don’t see literal sub-50 percent too often. It’s the worst of any qualifying quarterback in football and he hasn’t been above 50 percent in any of his three starts this year.
He has been a feast/famine quarterback. While he has the NFL’s worst completion percentage, he leads the NFL in yards per completion at over 16 yards. He’s thrown three touchdown passes but twice as many interceptions. Richardson’s only been sacked four times so his numbers are weird overall.
Top receiver Michael Pittman Jr. leads the team with 20 targets and 11 receptions. A 100-catch, 1,100-yard receiver last season, he only has 88 yards receiving this year, about two yards below his 2023 number. I imagine that’ll bounce back soon.
Veteran WR Alec Pierce is the playmaker and someone we had our eye on as a possible Steelers trade target this summer. But the Colts smartly held onto him, Pierce putting up an insane 25 yards per catch. He has nine receptions for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Three receptions have gone for over 40 yards. Second-round rookie A.D. Mitchell has struggled out of the gate, catching just two passes on 10 targets. He’s had at least one bad third-down drop. WR Josh Downs returned last week from a summer ankle injury, catching three passes for 22 yards.
Tight ends haven’t gotten involved much this year. Combined, they’ve caught only four passes. The running backs have only caught five, leading the receivers to catch 27 of them. So they’ve really been the straws stirring the drink. Compared to the Colts having 75 percent of their completions go to wide receivers, only 44 percent have gone to wide receivers with the Steelers.
They have eight completions of 20-plus yards, tied for the ninth-most in the NFL. Their five completions of 40-plus yards are most in the league, Pierce leading the NFL with three of them. So they want to go over the top and it’s usually with their wide receivers, responsible for four of them.
A staple under Shane Steichen is RPOs. The Colts have run the third-most of them this year, their 37 only trailing the Green Bay Packers’ 72 and Philadelphia Eagles’ 49 (where Steichen came from, being named Colts’ head coach in 2023). The Colts finished fourth in RPOs last year. Inside zone + No. 2 bubble is a common variation, and they run glance/slant routes and a ton of different concepts. Cornerbacks can never assume run. Examples.
Vertically, they like using sail concepts. A flat/corner/vertical route to flood zones and even stress man/leverage by having the sail sometimes come in the form of an over route from across the field.
Formation-wise, a lot of 2×2 with wings and tight splits. Also getting a lot of motion and they’ve opened the last two weeks running RPOs out of split backs with a wide receiver sidecar to the quarterback.
Did note in pass protection, the line is apt in stunt pickup and recognizing twists. Especially LG Quenton Nelson. May see less of that from Pittsburgh’s rush in that one.
Overall, the big goal here is to eliminate the big-play pass game the Colts have relied on to minimize the inefficiency Richardson is showing as a quarterback. Being able to capitalize on his mistakes is key, too.
Josh Carney’s Individual Report
It’s Colts week, Steelers fans!
With that comes yet another road trip for the Pittsburgh Steelers, marking the third time in the first four weeks that the Steelers have played an away game.
This time, they travel to the Loud House, Lucas Oil Stadium, to take on the 1-2 Colts under head coach Shane Steichen and unicorn quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Richardson is the total package at the quarterback position. He has the big arm that can make all of the throws, and he has the size and speed to be a legitimate threat as a runner with the football, something the Colts will utilize.
His right arm is his calling card.
Richardson has already made one jaw-dropping throw this season, hitting wide receiver Alec Pierce in the season-opener on a 65-yard touchdown, throwing the ball that far in the air against the Houston Texans.
He legitimately broke Next Gen Stats’ passing chart with the play, too.
The arm is truly impressive due to the distance and velocity with which Richardson throws. The problem is, his accuracy wanes and he makes some terrible decisions, leading to some back-breaking turnovers.
But that’s what makes him so tantalizing.
Add his rushing abilities, and he truly is a unicorn who fits the new-age quarterback position perfectly. He just needs coached up and needs to gain experience.
It helps that Richardson has arguably the best running back in football in Jonathan Taylor to lean heavily on in the run game.
Taylor is off to a strong start in 2024. He’s fully healthy and he’s thriving in Steichen’s system.
Against the Chicago Bears in Week 3, Taylor ran for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. His 29-yard touchdown was a thing of beauty and was a great display of his speed, vision and elusiveness to make defenders miss in space and run away for the score.
When Taylor’s fully healthy, his vison is top-notch and he’s as shifty as they come. He has a knack for finding the cutback lanes and can really gash a defense.
The Colts will also utilize backup running back Trey Sermon, giving Taylor a breather every now and then. Sermon had a touchdown against the Bears in Week 3.
At receiver, the Colts have quite the trio for Richardson to throw to, and that trio should be strengthened even further with another young receiver stepping up.
Michael Pittman Jr. leads the group as that dependable possession receiver. He’s had a tough start to the year with just 11 receptions for 88 yards. But the Steelers know how good Pittman is and how difficult he is to defend.
The development this season for the Colts has been the emergence of Alec Pierce, who has become a consistent deep threat and a key target for Richardson.
Pierce already has nine receptions for 225 yards and two touchdowns with three receptions of 40+ yards. As Mike Tomlin stated Tuesday, Pierce has been getting behind defenses since his college days at Cincinnati.
Great athlete with good speed and a knack for pulling away late in routes to win vertically.
The Colts selected Adonai Mitchell in the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft, adding a dynamic weapon for Richardson. He’s a good route runner and is an explosive piece overall. He has just two receptions for 32 yards on the season, but he’s a guy who’s seeing a lot of playing time and has 10 targets in three games.
Josh Downs is a young piece who is emerging this season. Good slot receiver overall and had a decent rookie season, but then had an ankle injury in training camp that slowed him.
He came back in Week 3 and had three receptions for 22 yards against the Bears and could have an even larger role in Week 4 against the Steelers. Great route runner, shifty with the football in his hands and has great speed.
At tight end, Kylen Granson is the top piece for the Colts. He’s a true move TE, one who might not offer much as a blocker, but he can win on crossing routes and vertical routes and has good speed.
Richardson hit Granson for a 40-yard gain in Week 3, which could have him looking his way more often.
Up front, the Colts still have a very good offensive line, led by star left guard Quenton Nelson. Ryan Kelly remains one of the better centers in the AFC, too, while the tackles are Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith.
Here’s how I expect them to line up left to right on Sunday:
LT — Bernhard Raimann
LG — Quenton Nelson
C — Ryan Kelly
RG — Will Fries
RT — Braden Smith
Nelson is as mean and nasty as they come in the trenches. He’s a true bully and is often the best player on the field at any given time for the Colts. Raimann has taken a real step forward next to him and has developed into a solid left tackle.
Smith is banged up with a knee injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday, but when he’s on the field he’s as steady as any right tackle in football. Kelly is a great leader for the Colts and is tough as nails while Fries has been quite a developmental story for the Colts, going from seventh-round pick to key starter in the trenches.
On special teams, the Colts have a great punter in Rigoberto Sanchez, continuing the tradition in Indianapolis that Pat McAfee set.
Sanchez is averaging 50.73 yards on 11 punts with a long of 59 yards. Ten of his 11 punts have been downed inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Remarkable.
Kicker Matt Gay, who has a big leg, had an injury early in the season that limited him, but he’s back now. He’s just 1-for-2 on the season but converted from 54 yards. Kicking indoors this week will be a big boost again for Gay.
In the return game, rookie Anthony Gould is handling punt-return duties. He’s lightning quick and is an explosive playmaker. He’s truly a blur with the football. He’s returned just one punt this year, but it went for 19 yards.
Cornerback Dallis Flowers handles the kick-return duties. He led the league in 2022 in average yards per kick return at 31.1, including a long of 89 yards. But he’s struggled with injuries the last two years. He had a 30-yard kickoff return against the Bears in Week 3 and should be a piece worth worrying about.
