As I did last year, I bring you 10 things I think about the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers. A set of ten predictions about the Steelers’ season. Some of them big, some of them small, but my top expectations for the season.
After the year wraps up, we’ll revisit these projections and see what I got right and what I got wrong.
1. Russell Wilson Will Remain The Steelers’ Starter Throughout Most, If Not All, Of 2024
Even though it’ll come with an inevitable midseason quarterback controversy. I jotted this prediction down before the news of his calf tightness surfaced Thursday afternoon, creating an uneasy feeling before the first Steelers Sunday. But I say this more about performance than assuming picture-perfect health.
So long as Wilson is competent and the Steelers competitive, it’s hard to see Wilson benched midseason. He was Pittsburgh’s first choice, signed without the team intent of also adding Fields. That door only opened once Kenny Pickett exited stage right. Mike Tomlin can be loyal, sometimes to a fault, and Wilson will play better football than what Pittsburgh’s gotten the past two years.
This is an I think not a I guarantee but I expect Wilson to be in the lineup from wire to wire. Assuming his body can hold up, that is.
2. The “easy” part of the schedule won’t feel so easy
National or local, the reaction to the Steelers’ schedule was almost uniform. The back end of it belongs in a circle of Dante’s Inferno. The front half? Not too daunting.
That’s not my view. While the back half is more difficult than the front portion, the first five weeks of the year are no picnic. Two tough road games to open the year in Atlanta and Denver followed by facing the improved Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3. Then heading out to Indianapolis in Week 4, where Pittsburgh lost last season, before hosting the potent Dallas Cowboys in Week 5.
Can Pittsburgh win here? Absolutely. But every game is going to be a fight until the finish. Partially because of the strength of these opponents, partially because heart-stopping is the only way the Steelers know how too win.
3. Pittsburgh Will Finish Top Five In Rushing Attempts
History says they’ll rank here. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has seen his offenses finish top five in rushing attempts four of his five years running the show in Tennessee or Atlanta. He was hired by Pittsburgh for his run-first attitude, the Steelers boasting a Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren duo behind an improved offensive line. They want to run the ball at will. So run they will.
Mix in what Justin Fields could offer in the designed run game and the Steelers can play a better brand of ball control and win in the trenches.
4. This Offense Will Miss A No. 2 wideout
Smith’s offenses don’t require a skilled No. 2 wide receiver as previous Steelers schemes demanded, but this offense will feel incomplete without a serious weapon opposite WR George Pickens. Pittsburgh’s search for help could and should continue until the trade deadline. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Steelers make a big swing for a name receiver around Halloween.
5. Minkah Fitzpatrick Will Roar Back
An underrated story this year is FS Minkah Fitzpatrick’s return. Not only with his health, that’s obvious enough after missing seven full games a year ago, but also his alignment. The Steelers won’t use him in the box at the absurd 20-percent rate they did last season.
Failing to record a takeaway in 2023 for the first time in his college or NFL career, Fitzpatrick will return with a vengeance. Expect a classic impact year.
6. An Offensive Tackle Will Catch A Touchdown Pass
Referenced this in my stats prediction post. Last year, I predicted Connor Heyward would throw a touchdown. He didn’t but he attempted a touchdown pass that fell incomplete. This year, a big man gets to do a touchdown dance.
Who? Harder to say. Troy Fautanu fits as an athletic sixth tackle who showed off his hands this offseason. At Tennessee under Smith, multiple tackles caught touchdowns down near the goal line. Timely play-action with an effective ground game could get one of these guys open.
7. The ILBs Won’t Be Perfect…But They’ll Be Good
Pittsburgh had an effective three-man inside linebacker rotation last season until injuries ruined everything. The Steelers rebuilt that group even stronger by signing Patrick Queen and drafting Payton Wilson. Elandon Roberts returns as a hammer.
There are some questions with this group. I have reservations about Queen in coverage, though it’s such a hard job for a linebacker, and Wilson has to get better against the run. Still, the talent and speed here are legitimate and they’ll make plays behind a stout starting d-line.
8. Pittsburgh will return one kick for a TD…but everything else will be muted
Cordarrelle Patterson was brought in to impact the kick-return game. And he will. Once.
Still, my expectations are tempered. Either because of his game declining into his 30s or because he houses one and teams stop kicking to him or for whatever reason, the kick-return game won’t feel dramatically different despite its new hairdo. But all it takes is one crease to house one, something Patterson still has the juice to do. It’ll be the team’s first kick-return score since 2017.
9. Slot Corner Will Feel Like A Top 2025 Need
After years of a committee at slot corner, Pittsburgh feels as messy as ever. Even last year’s duo of Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson looks more stable and sure than what the Steelers have now. Their depth chart seems to be Beanie Bishop Jr. for run downs and S DeShon Elliott for pass downs but even that is an uncertain statement to make.
Outside corner could feel like a need next year too — Donte Jackson’s a pending free agent — but 2025 might be the year where Pittsburgh finally tries to solve the slot corner problem long-term with one man.
10. Keeanu Benton And Nick Herbig Will Be Budding Wisconsin Studs
This is a pretty easy call to make. Benton and Herbig were dominant in the summer. Benton looks stronger and says he’s in better shape. Herbig has as many pass-rush moves as anyone on this team with a ridiculous first step. He should be on the field in some three-outside linebacker looks.
Playing time could cap their production but it’s not unreasonable to predict they reach double-digit combined sacks. The front seven looks like a real strength of this team.
Bonus
Cameron Johnston Will Set A Steelers Gross Record
Putting this one in bonus territory because I’ve talked about it so much and it feels like a layup. All Johnston has to do is average 47.1 gross punting yards to break a record that’s been held since 1961. He’s done it each of his last two years and even in his early years in Philadelphia, he came dangerously close to that mark.
Johnston boomed the ball like crazy in the preseason and could run up the numbers in September and October when the weather is good. How well Pittsburgh covers his punts is a legitimate question but Johnston’s raw numbers will be impressive.
