ESPN’s analytics are hardly swayed by the Pittsburgh Steelers’ hot start and early commanding lead in the AFC North. Per the site’s updated analytics, the Steelers have only 53-percent odds of winning the division. The Baltimore Ravens sit at 28 percent, the 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals at just over 13 percent, and the Cleveland Browns at under 6 percent.
While it’s only three games into the season and the Steelers won’t play any of divisional games until the back half of the season, the numbers still seem conservative. Pittsburgh has the NFL’s No. 1 defense and an improving offense, one that’s made strides each week. The Steelers couldn’t find the end zone in Week 1 before making their first trip in Week 2 and then put up two touchdowns Sunday in a 20-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Even granting that analytics measure the weight of what divisional play will mean later in the season, Pittsburgh still should have better odds. Of the eight divisions, their odds are just sixth-highest in the league. The Kansas City Chiefs lead the way with an 80-percent chance to win the AFC West while the Buffalo Bills are given a 78-percent chance to take home the AFC East.
Pittsburgh’s overall playoff odds are more favorable. ESPN gives them an 80-percent chance to be part of the postseason. As Dave Bryan wrote yesterday, their 3-0 start puts them on a strong historical track to advance past Week 18 and under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have made the playoffs the three previous times the team started 3-0. As for anything beyond that, they have about a 9-percent chance of making the Super Bowl and a 4-percent chance of hoisting their seventh Lombardi Trophy.
Despite their miserable 0-3 start, the Bengals still have a 36-percent chance of making the playoffs. Those are higher odds than a pair of teams with 2-1 records in the Washington Commanders, who beat them last night, and the Seattle Seahawks. And in their Football Power Index (FPI), the Bengals still rank 11th in the league, ahead of the 13th-place Steelers and losing no ground despite Monday’s defeat.
Obviously, these projections mean little and are still fluid less than one-quarter into the season. As usual, what happens once AFC North play really gets going will determine how the division unfolds. But maybe it’ll take a 4-0 start for the analytics to give Pittsburgh better than coin-flip odds of securing the AFC North.
