Since last season, there’s been several changes to the Pittsburgh Steelers personnel. Towards the top of that list is slot CB, which I’ve dedicated lots of time to in my offseason studies. The Steelers who donned most of the slot reps last season were Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson. Neither are with the team anymore.
Fast forward to the 2024 offseason. CB Josiah Scott was seeing first-team reps early in the spring, released and no longer with the team. Similarly, Grayland Arnold was a candidate, but recently released with an injury settlement. On top of that, we have to wait on Cam Sutton’s 8-game suspension before being optimistic about his prospects.
That’s way down the line though. The lack of experience from others, along with the revolving, flimsy door that has transpired above has me concerned. There are a couple of candidates that hopefully stick and pan out. Rookie UDFA Beanie Bishop Jr. surprised with how much first-team slot he played in camp. Then a minor injury kept him out of Game Two of the preseason. Hopefully, it won’t linger.
Then we have Thomas Graham Jr., who has played the most preseason slot snaps, particularly in Game Two with Bishop out. The latter is just getting his feet wet as a rookie while Graham has minimal regular season experience since being drafted in the sixth round in the 2021 NFL draft.
This included zero snaps in 2023, 37 total snaps the prior season, and 112 in 2021. Compared to Sullivan, the primary slot CB who had 422 snaps last season alone, emphasizes the inexperience I am concerned about. Also concerning is when most of Graham’s playing time occurred, way back in 2021.
With this in mind, I still wanted to learn about Graham’s 2021 season, considering he may be looking at an increased workload as the roster sits today. He has done some good things particularly in coverage this preseason, so let’s see what he was able to provide the Chicago Bears in 2021 in coverage.
Here’s 2021 coverage snaps and targets (min. of 15) for quantity context:
Remember this is 2021, so names like Joey Porter Jr. weren’t yet wearing the Black and Gold. This visual re-emphasizes my points in the opening, namely that Graham’s most playing time to date was far from substantial. This included just 54 coverage snaps, tied for 161st out of the 167 qualifying CBs (minimum of seven targets). That’s the number of times Graham was targeted, tying for 164th.
Here are 2021 snap alignments for the players in our sights, from Pro Football Focus (PFF):
Ed Note: This was written before CB Anthony Averett’s release.
All four players played primarily on the outside, including Graham. Not only are his lack of snaps in terms of quantity concerning, his slot snaps being lowest in the totem pole projects to an even bigger question mark to his potential in filling that role with Pittsburgh. On the bright side, in 2022 with Cleveland, 33 of his 37 total snaps were in the slot.
Other important context is man versus zone. Here are those rates:
Graham played the least amount of zone by a wide margin while his man rates were close to Sutton’s in 2021 with Pittsburgh. For more recent context, 2023 Steelers CBs with substantial snaps hovered around 30-percent man coverage and mid-upper 50s in zone.
So, similar man experience for Graham, while zone would be an adjustment from his prior experience. Some optimism once again looking at 2022, Graham played 51.5-percent zone, albeit a small sample size and seemingly fared well.
Now, let’s begin to examine the quality of play in 2021 with completion percentage and deserved catch rate, which is the number of completions and drops divided by the number of catchable targets and passes defensed:
While the quantity was lacking, we see the quality was there for Graham in these terms. A 28.6 completion rate allowed ranked third out of 167 qualifiers, along with a 33.3 deserved catch rate that was encouragingly the absolute best among his peers. Second-placed ranked at 46.2, making for a large margin and bragging right for Graham. This did come primarily at outside corner, but projecting that to slot CB is more optimistic than vice versa IMO.
Next, let’s look at the yardage of the targets with yards per attempt and yards per game:
Above the mean in both data points again, Graham allowed 12.0 yards per game for a strong 15th rank while his 6.9 yards per attempt tied for 60th. This is good to see, especially recalling that outside corner were Graham’s primary opportunities, generally lending to more yardage allowed (as we see from other current Steelers).
Another stat used often to evaluate defenders in coverage is QBR Against (factors in completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions), so let’s see how they fare along with points saved per play (PSPP – The total EPA responsibility while in coverage using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play, with positive numbers being good.
Totals are scaled up to map to the average points scored or allowed on a team level, with the player’s snap count determining how much to adjust. For pass defenders, this includes accounting for pass rush, broken tackles, dropped interceptions, turnovers, and turnover returns.):
Less comforting here. Graham lands right at the mean in PSPP, tying for 84th, and a below-average 95.2 QBR against ranked 105th. On his seven targets, Graham saw six catchable passes, allowing just two completions and had three passed defensed. But those catches went for 48 yards and a touchdown, along with no interceptions, so it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows.
To close, let’s look at SIS’s Boom and Bust percentages to see the rates of big plays allowed or made in coverage.
- Boom % = The percentage of dropbacks that resulted in an EPA of 1 or more (a very successful play for the offense)
- Bust % = The percentage of dropbacks that resulted in an EPA of -1 of less (a very unsuccessful play for the offense)
Back to a rosier picture here, comfortably above the mean in both data points. Graham’s 14.3 boom rate ranked 14th, while a 28.6 bust rate tied for an even better ninth rank. These numbers use EPA which emphasizes impact of each play to their expected outcome. To land so high among his peers in his most playing time in a season to date is fantastic.
I am more encouraged than I expected going into the study, with Graham’s quality reigning supreme compared to his quantity. The latter is of course the concern, and if he indeed earns notable playing time, if the impact can remain similar.
Here’s a wrap up rankings table of the data and conclusion:
Things seem to be pointing to Bishop being the run down guy with Graham perhaps manning coverage duties as we sit here today. I know everyone isn’t a fan of PFF grades, but they are a rare stat site to track preseason games.
Here are their grades to date, which leave optimism that it could work out that way:
Graham’s 77.6 defensive grade ranks 33rd among all CBs through two preseason games. We see run defense has been the bugaboo, compared to Bishop’s 63.1. Tackling has gone well for both, with Bishop ranking 34th and Graham tying for 39th. Pass rush also has leaned Graham’s way to date, ranking fifth among all CBs along with a 19th rank in coverage.
Preseason is obviously a different animal, but we’re seeing some good things from Graham. That lends to a bit of optimism after not playing much in the regular season in his career. Hopefully it continues in Saturday’s finale along with Bishop being healthy enough to suit up. They need as many snaps as possible.
