Unless you live under a rock, the rumblings of a potential trade for WR Brandon Aiyuk to the Pittsburgh Steelers is more than familiar. My goal today is to use a statistical approach to see how Aiyuk has performed the last three seasons compared to the top paid players at the position currently via Over The Cap.
First, I wanted to see where Aiyuk stacked up among WRs at an average yearly value of $25 million or more in receiving and run blocking grades from PFF. I averaged those numbers the last three seasons, along with total snaps over the span as their dot sizes. Here are the results:
Here we see Aiyuk’s stronger rank came as a run blocker with a 65.1 average grade since 2021, ranking second-best out of the ten players in our sights. That’s nice to see, considering the possible addition to Pittsburgh’s run-first identity under OC Arthur Smith. But an 83.1 average receiving grade for Aiyuk landed eighth, in the bottom-three compared to the highest paid WRs currently.
Across the board, we see some interesting names on the top right, above-average in both data points. That group of three players are Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, Miami’s Tyreek Hill, and Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown. They all have average yearly values of $30 million or more, likely on the high end of a potential Aiyuk deal with Pittsburgh.
The only other WR above that number is Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown ($32 million), whose receiving grade far exceeded his lowest-ranked run block grade. So, the four highest paid players at the position had above-average receiving grades.
The fifth man on that list is Raiders WR Davante Adams, who lands similarly on the visual to Brown and sits at an average yearly value of $28 million. That is a number our cap guru Dave Bryan views as the floor for what an Aiyuk contract might look like, which the data aligns well with so far.
Here is a rankings table of the stats from the first visual, including receiving grade (RECRK), run block grade (RBKRK), averaging the two (AVGRK), then using total snaps as a tiebreaker to get a final ranking (TOTRK) of the ten qualifying players along with their average yearly values (AYV) in parenthesis:
Aiyuk ranks fourth-best in TOTRK, so above average among the group. An interesting name just below his is WR Cooper Kupp of the Rams, whose 26.7 AYV is lower than what Aiyuk is seemingly looking for and potentially closer to what his current 49ers team has offered to date. The stalemate continues, and hopefully something gets done soon (whatever that something ends up being).
The other view I wanted to dive into is from ESPN, who provides some cool metrics in tandem with NextGenStats, tracking the best NFL receivers. This includes ratings in open, catch, YAC, and overall scores. Here is a visual of the averages over the three-year sample size in those stats:
First, we see Aiyuk lands even more favorably than the previous view, with the second-best 79.7 overall score (bar). This was largely due to a fantastic 96-overall rating last season, which was the best number in the entire timeframe. Seeing him sandwiched between Brown and Jefferson on the visual also helps his cause in the contract number Aiyuk is looking for.
The dots are also very interesting. Looking at the top five ranks, each WRs strongest mark was open score (red dot), except for Aiyuk. That group included Brown, Jefferson, Adams, and Hill, each comfortably above a 75 open score, and 28 million AYV or more. In comparison, Aiyuk’s open rating came in at 71.0 (fifth).
YAC was Aiyuk’s lowest mark (57.7). That doesn’t sound like much, but the blue dots on the visual show that was second-best among qualifiers, only behind Brown.
Also impressive is Aiyuk’s 75.7 catch rating (green dot), leading the group substantially, with a 69.3 number from Jefferson ranking second. Similar to Aiyuk’s overall score, a 97 catch rating in 2023 was his best by far, and ranked third-best since 2021. Who was better, you ask? One familiar name in Steelers WR George Pickens, with a 99 rating as a rookie in 2022.
That, of course, is a big piece of the puzzle in a potential Steelers trade. The duo of Aiyuk and Pickens would likely look great together. If things go as well as planned though, Pickens seems primed for a 2024 leap and will be up for an extension soon as well. Pair that will several young and new players on the Steelers offense, namely a QB hopefully performing well enough in 2024 that wouldn’t come cheap moving forward.
It’d be great to have so much talent on the field, but a trade for Aiyuk could put Pittsburgh in a similarly tough spot to what the 49ers are currently experiencing cap-wise in a best-case team performance scenario.
Of course, the flipside and ultimate goal is the on-field product. Aiyuk would take heat off of Pickens from opposing defenses, which is a concern as the roster sits today. I have complete faith in Steelers GM Omar Khan and what his offer and plan for the future is.
Now, here is a similar ranking table as earlier, including open score (OPENRK), catch score (CATRK), YAC score (YACRK), overall rating (OVRRK), averaging the four ratings (AVRRK), then using the same tiebreaker of total snaps to get the final rank (TOTRK):
This view paints Aiyuk even more favorably, with a second TOTRK, compared to an also respectable mark of fourth in the initial PFF view. This table emphasizes top five marks in all of ESPN’s metrics. The only other qualifier to do that was Brown, the lone WR to rank better than Aiyuk.
The stats really support Aiyuk’s contract wishes, and the value he has brought the last three seasons, capped with an especially impressive 2023 season. Interestingly, Aiyuk showed up to the 49ers facility despite his hold-out, yet another wrinkle to this long saga that seems good for San Francisco.
The reported offer on the table from Pittsburgh is around $28 million, as Bryan predicted. Now, the reoccurring question of when and where Aiyuk ends up continues.
