The Pittsburgh Steelers tallied 47 sacks during the 2023 season, and oddsmakers expect the team to fall right around that number again in 2024, as the team’s over/under for sacks on BetOnline is currently set at 46.5.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Steelers went over that number again. They have the best pass rusher in the league, T.J. Watt and another threat across from him is Alex Highsmith. They added two inside linebackers who can get after the quarterback, Payton Wilson and Patrick Queen, and a healthy Cameron Heyward should also improve on his two-sack total from 2023.
Still, sacks aren’t an easy stat to bet on, given that they can be volatile. Highsmith only had 6.5 sacks last season despite constantly pressuring the quarterback. That was a byproduct of playing across from Watt, so it’s tricky to really say that the Steelers will definitely get a certain number of sacks due to all the factors involved.
They went over that number last season, though, and the pass rush should be improved, given the additions they made and just another year of development out of guys like Nick Herbig, who should play a bigger role this season. The Steelers also added Markus Golden today. Golden racked up four sacks last season and, if he makes the roster, could put up similar numbers in a reserve outside linebacker role.
The Steelers have been good at getting after the quarterback in recent years, putting up 50+ sacks in a season from 2017-2021, although they fell short the last two seasons. It should be noted that Watt missed time in 2022 with a torn pectoral, and a healthy Watt makes betting the over a much safer decision.
He’s an artist when it comes to getting after the quarterback, and Vegas gives him the highest projected sack total at just 13.5, which feels low given his recent production. Factoring in Pittsburgh’s 46.5 over/under as a team compared to what the oddsmakers think Watt will do individually, and it could be a good bet to take the over if you assume Watt will exceed 14 sacks this season.
Pittsburgh’s pass rush has really been one of the hallmarks of their defense over the last decade, and they look to have the pieces in place for another strong year rushing the passer. While sack totals aren’t the easiest thing to bet on, if I was going to have action on the Steelers, I’d take the over on this line.
