This offseason in Pittsburgh brought plenty of change. A trio of quarterbacks went out the door (Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph) and a new trio entered (Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Kyle Allen). In addition, the Pittsburgh Steelers strengthened their defense in free agency with the signings of LB Patrick Queen and S DeShon Elliott and beefed up their offensive line in the draft with highly touted tackle Troy Fautanu.
Despite being in a loaded AFC and having a weird quarterback situation with Wilson and Fields each looking to bounce back with the Steelers, NFL bettors love Pittsburgh. FOX Sports’ Sam Panayotovich spoke with Casey Degnon, Westgate Super Book’s risk manager, and he said the Steelers are the sports books’ biggest liability.
“We have more tickets on the Steelers to win the AFC than any other team,” Degnon told Panayotovich. “Bettors seem to love them every year, but it’s even more than usual. They don’t even care who the quarterback is. Last year, we wrote tons of Steelers money with Kenny Pickett as the starter. We posted the conference markets a week before the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh opened at 40-1, and we wrote bets right away. We’ve continued to move it down, and we even took some pops at 25-1. I guess they’re betting on the Russell Wilson and Justin Fields revenge tour.”
With head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are always in contention come the end of the regular season making them a reasonable choice to bet on even though they have not won a playoff game since January 2017. Once you get into the playoffs anything can happen. The fact that people were betting on the Steelers to win the AFC as soon as the markets opened is crazy though. Pittsburgh snuck into the playoffs last season, and entering the offseason the quarterback position looked bleak. With what was expected to be a battle between Pickett and Rudolph, the ceiling was very limited.
With Wilson and Fields, the ceiling is much higher as they simply have more raw talent than either Pickett or Rudolph. The question is can either of them put it together? The offense did not look good in preseason play, and due to Wilson’s injury he did not get much run in either practice or in preseason. Despite this he is expected to be the starter this year.
At 25-1 odds, if you bet $10 you would win $250 if the Steelers win the AFC. Can they do it though? The defense should be great if it stays relatively healthy, but much will ride on the offense. If Wilson can have a stat line similar to last year where he threw for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and only threw eight interceptions Pittsburgh has a chance to push for a conference title.
Pittsburgh’s biggest issue last season was that it could not score. If Wilson throws 26 touchdown passes it would be welcomed with open arms by head coach Mike Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, and it would certainly put the Steelers in playoff contention so long as the team stays healthy.
For the sports books, the Steelers winning be AFC would be a disaster.
“If the Steelers win the AFC, we’ll lose six figures,” Degnon said.
I don’t think the sports books have to worry too much. Even with an improved offense and a healthy defense that should be dominate, I have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh vanquishing the Kansas City Chiefs. Although I can’t guarantee the Steelers will have to beat the Chiefs to win the AFC, it is hard to imagine that if the Steelers win the AFC they won’t have to face Kansas City at some point. And we all know how dominant the Chiefs are.
Additionally, QB Patrick Mahomes terrorizes the Pittsburgh. In three games against the Steelers (including a win in the 2021 Wild Card game) Mahomes has thrown for 988 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception. Those are video game numbers, and I have zero faith that will change.
For Steelers fans and bettors, the hope is that Wilson enjoys a career resurgence, the defense stays healthy, and Mahomes and the Chiefs get knocked out of the playoffs before the Steelers have to face them. If all that happens, then the sports books might be in big trouble.
