DraftKings has released their 2024 NFL Defensive Player of The Year odds, and in a fairly wide-open field, Pittsburgh Steelers OLB T.J. Watt and Dallas Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons are tied as the favorites for the award at +550.
Watt has been a stalwart in the award race over the past few years. In his last four healthy seasons (so excluding 2022), he’s ranked in the top 3 in DPOY voting, with his lone win coming in 2021.
He made a real run at the award last year in what was quite a controversial race. He appeared to have better stats than eventual award winner Myles Garrett but came up just short in the voting. Watt recorded 19 first-place votes compared to Garrett’s 23. Garrett ranks as the 5th favorite for the award coming into 2024, with odds of +800.
San Francisco 49er Nick Bosa and Las Vegas Raider Maxx Crosby are the two other players ahead of Garrett, both at +700.
Parsons, who is the co-favorite, has also been in the mix for the award ever since he entered the NFL. Over his three professional seasons, he’s finished second, second, and third in voting.
The worry for fans of Watt, and the likely reason his odds aren’t lower, is how much narrative plays in awards like DPOY. As a former winner of the award, the unfortunate reality is that it’s going to be harder for Watt to garner votes. Especially when compared to someone like Parsons, who hasn’t won it before.
When you get cases like Garrett going into last season, or Parsons going into this season, it makes it tough for someone like Watt to win, even if he does lead the league in sacks for a fourth time. Look at Parsons’ career. He’s been in the mix year after year but hasn’t quite taken home the award. The worry is that Watt has a slightly better season, but because he’s already won, Parsons takes the award home as a sort of lifetime achievement trophy. This is what many think happened with Watt vs Garrett last season. It makes sense why Watt has called for more clarity in the voting process.
It’s a testament to how good Watt is then that he still remains a co-favorite for this award, even being a former recipient. He’s still in his prime, even as he enters his age-30 season, and has the physical tools, and the teammates, to be able to post another monster statistical season.
