YAC is a very important factor for a successful passing game. Today, I wanted to look at and provide data on new Pittsburgh quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, along with former Steeler Kenny Pickett in 2023, for comparison.
Using data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), I calculated YAC Percentages (YAC/total yards) to see which NFL quarterbacks benefited from playmaking from their receivers once the ball was in their hands. This will include players with a minimum of 250 regular season dropbacks.
Here are the 2023 regular season results:
Unlike my recent air yard percentage study, where the three quarterbacks were in the bottom half of the league, we see the other side of the coin was being in the top third of the league in YAC and the primary avenue to their pass yardage in 2023.
Particularly Wilson, who tops the players in our sights with 56.8 percent of his passing yards coming via YAC, fourth-most out of the 33 qualifying quarterbacks. Wilson (and Fields) are effective deep ball passers, but recent studies confirmed that Wilson threw a ton of short passes compared to his peers, including the third-most behind the line of scrimmage among qualifiers.
So, it makes sense that there would be more YAC as a result, which we could similarly see in 2024 with Pittsburgh. The Steelers made great strides last season compared to prior struggles in recent memory. This included Pickett’s 51.8 YAC percentage, ranked eighth in 2023, compared to 27th in a similar study for YAC on Pickett’s 2022 passes.
Wilson was also lower on that list, ranking 14th in the 2022 season, so there can, of course, be an ebb and flow in YAC rates. Hopefully, we see a similar result for Wilson in 2024. Considering air-yard throws near the line of scrimmage are most common for all QBs, and getting the ball to playmakers’ hands was on display for both Wilson and Pittsburgh last season, I’m optimistic for just that.
Fields also ranked high at 11th, with a 50.2 YAC rate, and the final quarterback above 50 percent. Just above half of his passing yards came via YAC, with a more even split to his air yardage. That is also enticing, he is still able to feed his playmakers, but he could also see more varied results if opportunities arise this season (and beyond).
While there are many ways to attack defenses in the passing game, seeing multi-effective Super Bowl Champion and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes atop this list (comfortably) is a great place for a Pittsburgh offense to aspire for. Mahomes’ whopping 62.2 YAC percentage likely won’t be reached, but it does point to how important YAC can be given their team’s success.
Along with the new quarterback room, there’s also the new coordinator, Arthur Smith. In 2023, his primary quarterback in Atlanta was Desmond Ridder, who had the fifth-lowest YAC result at a much lower 44.4 percent than the players in our sights. Many would agree that Pittsburgh has a more talented roster than the 2023 Falcons, so this data isn’t concerning.
Another factor for Pittsburgh is the shift in personnel from 2023 to 2024. Out went WR Diontae Johnson without bringing in an obvious WR2 behind George Pickens. Rather, it was a slew of potential candidates that have been more role players to date, along with stockpiling the tight end room.
This could mean more targets for RBs and tight ends, which could also bode well in terms of YAC for 2024. The backfield of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren remains, and Warren, in particular, was a huge part of the YAC improvements in 2023. I definitely see that holding true or even improving this season.
For more context, the top three YAC receivers for Pittsburgh in 2023:
RB Jaylen Warren: 496
WR George Pickens: 409
WR Diontae Johnson: 267
The primary producers are still donning the black and gold, while we see the void (to a lesser extent) in Johnson. Guys like Harris, TE Pat Freiermuth, and TE Connor Heyward ranked next last season with YAC in the 100-yard range, and personally hope Freiermuth moves up substantially this season. This is realistic, in my opinion, especially considering the five games Freiermuth missed due to injury in 2023.
Let’s see who Wilson’s receivers with more than 200 in YAC were last season:
RB Samaje Perine: 461
WR Jerry Jeudy: 317
RB Javonte Williams: 309
RB Jaleel McLaughlin: 293
Holy running backs. This makes sense, recalling Wilson’s high rate of behind-the-line passing last year, and aligns with my point of Pittsburgh’s backfield likely continuing that production with Wilson under center.
Here’s the same view for Fields and his 2023 Bears receivers:
WR DJ Moore: 550
TE Cole Kmet: 294
RB Roschon Johnson: 252
Moore definitely garnered the lion’s share of Fields’ targets (132), with Kmet coming in second at 88. That could align closer to how Pittsburgh wants to attack in 2024 positionally, with Pickens and a knock-on-wood healthy and productive season for Freiermuth, along with Warren’s talents.
What about Smith’s results in his final season as head coach of Atlanta in 2023?
RB Bijan Robinson: 526
TE Jonnu Smith: 366
RB Tyler Allgeier: 215
Interestingly, the players with over 200 in YAC last year were strictly RBs and TEs. The most common thread in all the views was at running back, particularly Wilson and Smith, along with Warren leading Pittsburgh in 2023.
Here’s to hoping the expected Steelers starter in Wilson continues his success distributing to playmakers, Warren and Pickens continuing to shine in that regard, and personally hoping Freiermuth is the biggest benefactor in YAC as well in Smith’s offense that highly utilizes the position.
