Getting into the red zone is a sign of a successful offense and punching it in for six obviously the ultimate goal. Today. I wanted to look at and provide data on new Pittsburgh quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields’ in the red zone, along with former Steeler Kenny Pickett in 2023 for comparison.
Using data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), I will include players with a minimum of 250 regular season drop backs.
Here are the 2023 regular season results:
What jumps out right away is the painful reminder of Pittsburgh’s putrid red zone offense in 2023, emphasized by Pickett’s worst 9.4 red zone TD rate out of the 33 qualifiers. This was the only number below ten and points to the huge remedy and hope for improvement in 2024.
Cue Wilson, who was the sixth-best QB in 2023. His 26.3 red zone TD rate engulfed Pickett’s by more than double. So, that is one huge hope, and mandate from the top down to score more points. On paper, it was addressed in spades this offseason.
Also encouraging for Wilson is having the same sixth ranking in red zone attempts with 76. Not only was the touchdown frequency there, but he captained drives that made it to the red zone at a high rate as well.
In comparison, Pickett had 32 red zone attempts (29th), less than half of Wilson’s number. While it’s a team game, and so many factors contribute to an offense making it to the red zone, the data is incredibly encouraging for the outlook in 2024.
Looking at Fields, his 22.0 red zone touchdown rate tied for 20th, and 50 red zone attempts. The latter tied for 22nd, so a bit below-average among the 33 qualifiers in each. In terms of the three quarterbacks we’re focused on, Wilson was clearly the best at leading his offense to the ultimate goal of scoring points.
That has been a bugaboo in Pittsburgh for far too long, and will hopefully translate drastically for the better this upcoming season.
Another element I wanted to look at is accuracy, which gets more difficult for quarterbacks in the tight quarters of the red zone. Here are the QBs completion rates, catchable target percentages, and on target rates:
Wilson: 61.8 completion rate (ninth), 85.9 catchable rate (eighth), 81.3 on target rate (third).
Fields: 54.0 completion rate (19th), 82.9 catchable rate (14th), 78.0 on target rate (fifth).
Pickett: 43.8 completion rate (31st), 75.0 catchable rate (27th), 60.7 on target rate (T-30th).
Substantial differences between the QBs, particularly stronger for the new QB room. Wilson ranked in the top ten in each, with stronger accuracy numbers (catchable/on target) than his completion rate. That is also true for Fields, who had a substantial leap in on target ranking.
We see that wasn’t the case last year with Pickett, with all of his numbers substantially lower than the new black and gold quarterbacks, and one of the worst qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL in this regard.
The hope is for Wilson to post a similar, if not better 2024 season with Pittsburgh, which would be huge in turning the offense around. Ultimately, if forced to choose only one stat, the scoreboard is all that matters. And, very optimistically, the numbers point to an obvious expectation for more points in the Steel City that has been long overdue.
Here is a wrap up rankings table of the data to close:
