Passing performance in clutch time (fourth quarter/overtime) is an extremely important aspect to quarterback play and team success. Today, I wanted to look at and provide 2023 data on new Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in this regard. For comparative context, we’ll see how Kenny Pickett performed last year.
The main stat I would like to provide is a favorite here at Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A), which factors in several important elements into one metric: ([Pass Yards] + 20[Pass TD] – 45[Interceptions] – [Sack Yards])/([Attempts] + [Sacks]).
This is a valuable number overall and for the situation so I’ll look at NFL quarterbacks clutch time ANY/A (dot sizes = clutch time attempts), along with total regular season ANY/A (minimum of 250 total pass attempts) to see how quarterbacks performed situationally.
Here are the 2023 regular season results:
Right away, we can see that none of the three players in our sights had an ideal total ANY/A number in 2023. Wilson, the expected Steelers’ starter, led the group we’re focused on with a 6.1 total ANY/A. That ranked 16th and landed right at the mean of the 31 qualifying NFL quarterbacks.
Not a terrible number but shy of the 6.5 ANY/A that our Dave Bryan mentions regularly as an ideal baseline, which the visual highlights well, with several successful quarterbacks (and teams) at or above that mark.
More specifically for Wilson, he had 447 total attempts (19th), 3,070 passing yards (19th), 26 touchdowns (ninth), eight interceptions (T-11th), and 45 sacks (28th) in 15 games last season.
Overall, we see the touchdown-to-interception ratio was a bright side to Wilson’s 2023 campaign, with the well documented bug-a-boo of taking far too many sacks (fourth-most), while landing below average on total attempts and passing yards.
Encouragingly, Wilson fared better as games wore on, with a 7.0 clutch time ANY/A that shot up the ranks and tied for fourth-best. Of course, strong numbers in both charted data points is more preferable, but it is great to see Wilson step up when it mattered most compared to his peers.
Here are Wilson’s fourth quarter stats: 143 attempts (T-sixth), 1,045 passing yards (fourth), 11 touchdowns (first), two interceptions (T-sixth), and 15 sacks (29th).
Having the most clutch time touchdowns in 2023 is a refreshing sight that will hopefully carry over into 2024 with Pittsburgh, along with ranking in the top six for the majority of the data. Unfortunately, though, the sack issue did not improve in key moments, taking the third-most. Very encouraging overall though, creating optimism for 2024, especially if the Steelers offensive line and Wilson can work in tandem to limit sacks compared to his time in Denver.
For all his warts, one of former Pickett’s strengths to date was performing in the clutch as well. Here are his total and clutch time numbers in 2023:
Total: 5.3 ANY/A (T-25th), 324 attempts (28th), 2,070 passing yards (29th), six touchdowns (31st), four interceptions (T-first), 23 sacks (fourth) in 12 games.
Clutch Time: 6.7 ANY/A (tenth), 69 attempts (31st), 563 passing yards (27th), two touchdowns (T-30th), one interception (T-first), six sacks (T-ninth).
Looking at these specific numbers, we see one important difference with Pickett was a lack of quantity compared to Wilson, making the latter’s results all the more impressive. That also factors into the better sack rankings for Pickett, with the ANY/A number painting a clearer picture than the stat totals.
While I didn’t expect Fields to top the results, he was clearly below the mean in both total and clutch time ANY/A. In fact, he unfortunately ranked dead last with a 2.6 clutch time ANY/A. Here’s his specific data:
Total: 5.3 ANY/A (T-25th), 370 attempts (24th), 2,562 passing yards (22nd), 16 touchdowns (20th), nine interceptions (T-13th), 44 sacks (30th) in 13 games.
Clutch Time: 2.6 ANY/A (31st), 92 attempts (T-24th), 552 passing yards (28th), three touchdowns (29th), six interceptions (T-29th), ten sacks (T-15th).
Fields’ total numbers were not ideal to begin with, below-average in each stat except interceptions (positively), namely the second-most sacked quarterback. So a similar issue to Wilson that Pittsburgh will have to adjust to if he receives playing time as well.
Largely, clutch time stats for Fields were worse. Some big differences on the negative side were dips in passing yards, touchdowns, and the majority of his interceptions (six-of-nine) came late in games. A bit of good news came via less sacks taken in clutch time compared to the high number Fields took in totality.
Here is a wrap up table of the stats, and conclusion to close:
We can see that Wilson fared best across the data, as he has encouragingly done for the majority of my offseason studies. The most glaring issue that has come up once again is taking sacks, reoccurring regardless of the time of game, unfortunately.
Wilson had a strong total touchdown-to-interception ratio last season and really stepped up in clutch time, particularly throwing the most touchdowns to close games in 2023 along with top six ranks outside of sacks.
Optimistically, we see sack totals were less in Pittsburgh, but most of that was due to Pickett playing the least amount of games of the three quarterbacks. While he also had a top ten clutch time ANY/A, compared to a much lower 25th in totality, it came on much less opportunity than Wilson as the attempts, yards, and touchdowns indicate.
Another big difference we could see is interceptions. Pickett tied for the lowest total interceptions and in clutch time, while Wilson and Fields took more big play risks but were still above-average in totality (T-11th and 13th, respectively). Wilson improved in clutch time tying for sixth-best, and Fields plummeted from 13th to 29th.
Looking at Fields overall, his better marks were total interceptions and clutch time sacks. The script flipped on him in the opposing situations, falling all the way to 29th in clutch time interceptions but notably improved in reducing sacks taken in clutch time.
That was the lone positive difference in the data for Fields compared to Wilson. This is another study where the data clearly justifies Wilson being Pittsburgh’s QB1 for 2024 and a likely upgrade to what Pittsburgh had at the position last season.
