With OTAs ramping up around the league this week as teams enter Phase 3 and can go live reps on both sides of the ball (albeit no tackling), the buzz around the 2024 season has picked up. Pro Football Focus put out its quarterback rankings ahead of the 2024 season today, and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson came in at No. 22 overall, under Tier 5 of “can singlehandedly win or lose games.”
“Wilson’s past two years make it nearly impossible to evaluate who he is as a quarterback and what he is capable of. What we did see last year is that he can still hit the moonshot when it’s there. Despite ranking just 21st in PFF passing grade, he was a top-10 quarterback in total big-time throws and rate and was a top-five passer in big-time throws when pressured,” Trevor Sikkema wrote. “And yet, his big-time throw rates in his two years with the Broncos were two of the lowest in his career. Wilson was also one of just a handful of quarterbacks with a time-to-throw average above 3.00 seconds, a constant throughout his career, which goes into his 100 sacks taken over the past two years (most in the NFL). It’s anyone’s guess as to what version of Wilson we’ll see in Pittsburgh. But when he’s been at his best, it’s been while pushing the ball downfield.”
In Arthur Smith’s offense, Wilson will have the opportunity to take his shots, with a lot of them coming off play-action. His average time to throw is an issue and something that Wilson is going to have to work on even as the Steelers revamped their offensive line through the draft with the additions of Zach Frazier and Troy Fautanu, two likely Day 1 starters. He also has to reduce his checkdown percentage.
As Sikkema wrote, Wilson is at his best when he’s throwing it deep and dumping it off and playing too conservatively led to some of his struggles in Denver. The Steelers’ scheme should be suited for him to be able to hit some deep balls, and the team can rely on the run game with Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris in the backfield to keep the defense on their toes and set up the passing attack in the intermediate to deeper part of the field.
It’s hard to see Wilson being worse than Kenny Pickett was in Pittsburgh, but there are some things he has to overcome to get back to being the quarterback he was in Seattle. Ideally, that will happen in Pittsburgh, and PFF at least still thinks there’s some upside for Wilson. At a minimum, he wasn’t the worst quarterback in the AFC North, with Deshaun Watson checking in at No. 23. There’s a real chance that Arthur Smith gets the most out of Wilson this season, and with Pittsburgh’s schedule, the team is going to need Wilson to get going early in the season.
It also could help that Justin Fields is pushing him. The added pressure of a guy who has starting experience and all the physical gifts to succeed looming behind him could be a motivating factor for Wilson to keep his starting job. But we won’t really know what we get out of Wilson until the pads fully come on and we see him in action against another team. I think it’ll be better than what he was in Denver, and I think Wilson will wind up being a really nice addition for the Steelers. By the end of the season, Russell Wilson could rank inside the top in lists like these.
